Taxslayer
Bowl Pick
Iowa
vs.
Tennessee
1/2/15
Both of these teams are looking for a bowl win to kind of kick-start their football programs into relevancy. Iowa and Tennessee have both lost two straight bowl Games, with the Hawkeyes last winning one in 2010 and the Volunteers back in 2008. As expected, the team out of the SEC is favored by -3.5 points in the TaxSlayer Bowl in Jacksonville.
This could be the last Game for the Big Ten this bowl season (depending on Ohio State), which may be a good thing depending on how they perform as underdogs in each of their bowls. Iowa had a real shot of winning the Big Ten West, but ultimately failed when it mattered most. Despite the early-season loss to Iowa State, they started 6-2, but in a huge Game at Minnesota, completely flopped and lost 51-14. They went 4-4 in the Conference (7-5 overall) with their best win coming against Illinois or Northwestern. Yeah, not too impressive.
Tennessee showed a bit more hope throughout their season, mostly toward the end of the year winning three of their last Four including a road Game at South Carolina in overtime. The Vols got off to a slow start at 3-5, but a lot of that was due to Schedule, with Four of those losses coming against teams ranked in the top 12 at the time. They don’t have a bad loss all season, which really stands out, compared to Iowa.
against decent teams, Iowa has struggled on both ends of the field this season. For a team without a consistent quarterback, they only average 3.9 yards per carry. But still, the Hawkeyes will give the ball to RB Mark Weisman (802 yards, 14 TDs) as much as possible. Jake Rudock doesn’t have terrible numbers (16 TDs, 5 INTs), but you’re not going to see him win this Game if the rushing attack doesn’t get going. Iowa’s best player is Brandon SCherff, who won the award for the country’s top interior lineman.
Tennessee doesn’t have great numbers, but they will be a test for Iowa. Remember the two teams they had to play outside of the SEC East were Ole Miss and Alabama. against non-elite teams, Tennessee was pretty stout outside of allowing 42 points to South Carolina.
However, the Volunteers are a similar team to the Hawkeyes in which their offense is not the strong suit. They average a putrid 3.4 yards per carry (against better competition) led by Jalen Hurd (777 yards, 3 TDs). It would be a surprise if they could run much on the Iowa defensive front. And it doesn’t get any better with Joshua Dobbs (8 TDs, 5 INTs) in at quarterback as he took over five Games ago for the injured Justin Worley. His mobility is probably his biggest weapon and something Iowa will Game plan for.
In the end it could come down to who makes the big plays. Someone in the receiving Game will have to step up, like Iowa’s Kevonte Martin-Manley or Tennessee’s Pig Howard.
The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl Games and 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. the SEC. The Volunteers are 8-20-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-Conference Games.
Our model, when using full season data, predicts a 28-21 Vols win. However, when using only the last 7 Games, that margin shrinks to Tennessee by 2.