Texas Bowl Pick
Arkansas
vs.
Texas
12/29/14
The Texas Bowl isn’t a matchup of superpowers, but it should be a fun Game featuring two meddling teams from arguably the two best conferences. Arkansas and Texas both finished at 6-6, but the Razorbacks have the edge out of the SEC as a -6 point favorite.
All that’s needed these days to reach a bowl Game is two Conference wins. No discredit to Arkansas, but Four of their six wins were in non-Conference play against lesser competition. Still, this is a team that improved mightily from a season ago when they finished with just three wins and didn’t win a Conference Game. Because of that, the Razorbacks went 9-3 ATS for the season. Their defense really picked it up as seen in late-season shutouts of LSU and Ole Miss and they also came a point away from Alabama.
Texas was sort of in the same situation, but their five Conference wins were helped out by beating the five worst teams in the Big 12. The Longhorns started slow in Charlie Strong’s first season with a 2-4 record, highlighted by a 41-7 loss to BYU, but eventually righted the ship. The defense kept them in most Games, but the offense was ultimately bad. It can’t be forgotten that Texas did lose by at least 20 points to the top three teams in their conference.
Both of these teams play solid defense and love to run the ball more than anything, but the favorite has the edge.
Starting with Arkansas, they are led by two running backs that have both surpassed 1,000 yards and 10 TDs in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins. That’s something not many other teams can say, if any. Brandon Allen has done his job at QB for the most part with 18 TDs and only five INTs. When you have a power rushing team like these guys, all the QB has to do is limit his turnovers. Of course if it’s a close Game in the Fourth quarter, fans would have liked to see some better play from Allen.
We should be able to determine which of these defenses is better after this Game. Arkansas has shut down some solid SEC teams, but LSU and Ole Miss are not offensive power houses. The same can be said about the Texas wins over Kansas and Oklahoma State. Which defense will win this Game?
The Longhorns are a bit more of a passing team, but that doesn’t mean a good thing. Tyrone Swoopes has been too inconsistent and too bad in big Games for fans to approve of his play. Swoopes has just 13 TDs and 10 INTs for the year on 359 pass attempts. That’s not a good rate. The Longhorns have a decent run Game, but not a unit like Arkansas’ that will lead them to a win by itself. The duo of Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray have combined for 1,310 yards and 13 TDs. It’s likely Swoopes will need to make plays in this Game for Texas to have a chance which means WRs John Harris (1,015 yards, 7 TDs) and Jaxon Shipley (571 yards) need to be on their Games.
Most of the early money was on Arkansas mainly because they are out of the SEC and the Texas offense hasn’t been good all season.
The Razorbacks have covered in five straight vs. the Big 12, are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Games overall, but are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl Games. The Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral-site Games and a nice 14-2 ATS in their last 16 Games following a double-digit loss, although it will be a month between this bowl and their last Game.