Ole Miss
vs.
Vanderbilt
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/6/14
This is not the same Vanderbilt team that we have seen over the last three years with James Franklin taking them to three straight bowl Games. Because of that, Ole Miss is a heavy -20.5 point favorite on the road in each team’s first SEC Game.
The Commodores added first-time head coach Derek Mason and got off to a rough start in their first Game. They lost 37-7 at home to Temple, a team they were actually favored over by 8.5 points. Not only did they bring in a new coach, but they didn’t return many starters including at key positions on the offensive end.
The Rebels, on the other hand, have built themselves up over the last couple years and are suddenly a team to reckon with once again in the tough SEC West. They are now No. 15 in the AP Polls after a big 35-13 win over Boise State last weekend.
While the Rebs’ running Game didn’t do much, Bo Wallace, in his third year as the team’s starter, shined with 387 yards and Four TDs. Cody Core and LAquon Treadwell both caught for 100-plus yards and three combined touchdowns.
After struggling against a mediocre Owls team that had two wins in 2013, it’s a wonder what Vandy will be able to do against a team like Ole Miss. These teams faced off last year and it was a true back-and-forth battle with the Rebels prevailing 39-35. again, the Commodores were a much different team back then.
The Ole Miss line is big and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them dominate on both sides of the ball. If Vandy can’t move it on Temple, what will they do against a better defense? Patton Robinette started at QB, but didn’t last long, being pulled early in the second quarter. Stephen Rivers entered for almost the rest of the way and didn’t do much better, completing just 12-of-25 passes and an interception. Needless to say, the starting QB was an unknown in the middle of the week.
That will definitely be a problem in this Game. And then you throw in Bo Wallace and company and Vandy will have their hands full on both ends of the field. Wallace led his offense to 35 points against a respected defense. And then if the Rebs can get their rushing Game going, watch out.
The end result may not be pretty and even with Vandy getting those 20 points, a lot of people will be all-in on the Rebels.
The Rebels are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven Conference Games and 1-4 ATS in their last five road Games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Commodores are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight home Games vs. a team with a winning road record, and that was when Vandy was a more respected team. The road team has covered in five of the last six meetings between these schools.
To make any kind of a selection with confidence, we need to see more from both of these teams. Especially Vanderbilt. But we’ll leave you with this. There have been much worse Vanderbilt teams than this one, that have managed to hang with the upper class of the SEC, which Ole Miss has now entered. So with that in mind we’ll go ahead and offer a small opinion here based on nothing more than going against the public (75% is on Ole Miss) and Vandy’s history of hanging around. But only at +21 or more. Vanderbilt +21 or more