Virginia
vs.
Florida State
College Football
Pick with Analysis
11/8/14
Florida State’s run to another perfect season continues with a home Game against a Virginia team coming off three straight losses. The Seminoles are -19.5 point home favorites for this one at betonline. Betonline is the first to post lines each week and opened this Game initially at -22.
This isn’t the same undefeated FSU team that bettors loved last season after they covered 11 of 13 Games. Instead, it’s a team that continues to churn out wins without blowing out their opponents. The Seminoles are just 2-6 ATS on the year which is the reason this line isn’t bigger.
Virginia has been a feisty team this year, but the ACC Coastal division is getting the best of them. The Cavaliers played their worst Game of the season last week, losing at Georgia Tech 35-10. They couldn’t do anything on the offensive end and couldn’t stop the Yellow Jackets running attack. Virginia is still 5-3-1 ATS on the year, but have not covered in Four straight Games, so they were a little overrated after a solid opening run.
To make matters worse (or better for FSU), Virginia has not won a road Game yet this year.
The Seminoles may not be scoring a ridiculous amount of points every week, but they are still moving the ball consistently with Jameis Winston. They came back from 21-0 down in their last Game at Louisville to eventually win 42-31. Winston has been in trouble outside of football for most of the year, which in turn may be hurting his numbers. Across the board, he hasn’t improved at all and only has 16 passing TDs and nine interceptions for the year. Still, he comes up with the plays when needed. It’s unlikely Virginia will be able to stop him along with WR Rashad Greene and RB Karlos Williams.
since we know FSU will get their points, the spread comes down to what Virginia’s offense can do against a Florida State defense that hasn’t shown much this season (compared to last year, at least).
However, offense is not a strong suit for the Cavaliers, scoring just 26.7 points per Game on the year. against better teams, they struggle, as expected. QB Greyson LAmbert was benched in last week’s Game, but should get another start for this one, even though Matt Johns has been a solid backup. The Cavs will start by trying to get a run Game going behind Kevin Parks, because FSU can be beat on the ground. If that isn’t working, it’ll be tough for Virginia to do much.
Virginia is sitting at 4-5 with three Games to go and is hoping to reach two more wins for a bowl Game. Their upcoming Schedule doesn’t look pretty, but expect to see some fight from them, which has been the case in all of their losses outside of at GT.
The Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road Games vs. a team with a winning home record, and as said before, they have not covered in Four straight Games overall. The Seminoles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 at home, but only 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall. These teams haven’t played since 2011, but the under has hit a surprising nine straight times.
The Noles aren’t anywhere near as good as last years team. However, they keep on winning which is all that matters. (thankfully we now have a playoff to decide a champ!!!). They are obviously a better football team than Virginia and should get this win with only the margin in doubt. As mentioned above, FSU is not blowing teams out while Virginia has at least been competitive this year with the exception of last week. They have a coach fighting for his job and the team fighting for a Bowl Game so we’d expect their best effort of the season this week.
There may be some value in betting Virginia in the 1st quarter and 1st half and if the Game line reaches +21 or better, we’d consider Virginia as a play.