Oregon is sitting pretty after a dominant second-half performance against Michigan State, which allowed them to push into the No. 2 spot in the AP Polls. They probably weren’t upset after hearing USC took down Stanford, either. Once again, the Ducks are favored to win the Pac-12, but can they continue to live up to the hype? They are a solid -44 point favorite against Wyoming this weekend at 5 dimes sportsbook.
There was a time when Wyoming earned some respect in the 2013 season. They were 3-1 and their only loss was to Nebraska in the season opener on the road by three points. Were the Cowboys finally turning the corner? The simple answer was no. After that start, they travelled to Texas State as 10-point favorites to only lose by 21. A couple more losses from that season included48-10 to Fresno State, 41-7 to Boise State and 35-7 against Utah State. Wyoming started the 2014 season with two small wins against bad teams.
This should be another classic Oregon Game in which they Score50-60 points and allow single-digit points. From what the Cowboys have done offensively so far (34 points in two Games), there’s no reason the Ducks won’t cover this spread.
This is the first meeting between these two teams which means Wyoming is probably in for a rude awakening. Playing teams in the Mountain West don’t really translate to what Oregon can do. Sure, the Cowboys played Nebraska tough last year, but Oregon could easily handle the Cornhuskers at this point.
The Ducks have quarterback Marcus Mariota and that’s all you need to know, as he’s currently the top runner for Heisman. He has 585 passing yards, seven total TDs and zero interceptions in two Games. Remember, he played against one of the best defenses in the nation last Saturday. Joining him is a slew of running backs that can all break the long run as well as receivers that fit right into the Oregon system.
As long as Oregon takes this Game seriously in the first two or three quarters, they should reach the 60-point mark before it’s said and done.
Wyoming’s offense is a different kind of problem. Record-breaking quarterback Brett Smith is gone and senior Colby Kirkegaard is in with limited experience. The Cowboys barely won their first two Games against less-than-average teams. Kirkegaard has 374 yards, two TDs and one INT on the season and will find plenty of problems against Oregon. They should try and ride Shaun Wick and D.J. May in the ground Game, but this is going to be a completely different test than their first two Games.
The Ducks will dominate both sides of the ball and it will probably get ugly early. The 44-point spread seems reasonable and against a newer, inexperienced QB, can be attainable.
The Cowboys are only 1-5 ATS in their last six Games overall and 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. But they are a solid 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road Games. The Ducks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning road record, but 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-Conference Games.
Naturally thing change from year to year. Sometimes a lot. Sometimes a little. Our model, at this point in the season, uses data from last year, along with this years season to date data. So, it’s not yet reflective of only this years data. That being said, the model predicts a final score of Oregon 78 and Wyoming 12. Whoa!
That being said, we haven’t been successful betting football for 30+ years by betting -44 point favorites. We’ll pass!