Arkansas – Ole Miss NCAAF Point Spread Pick

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Ole Miss


College Football

Pick – Analysis


This is a Game that Ole Miss absolutely needs if it wants to stay in the College Football Playoff rankings. They come in at No. 18 ahead of this Game, but could easily drop out with a tough slate to close the year. Arkansas has given trouble to a number of teams so far, and this one shouldn’t be any different. The Rebels are still a hefty -11 point favorite at

Last year’s result is the first reason this spread may be a little too high. Arkansas dominated this matchup in a 30-0 win as Ole Miss QBs tossed three interceptions. The Rebels had no answers as they were beat up on the line on both sides of the field. Another favorable stat for Arkansas backers is that this matchup hasn’t been decided by more than 10 points in Four straight meetings.

since its loss to Memphis, Ole Miss has gotten a couple big wins against Texas A&M and Auburn. However, this still doesn’t look like the Top 5 team that many projected after they beat Alabama early in the season. They still host LSU and travel to Mississippi State in their final two regular season Games, and both could be losses.

Arkansas is coming off a freebie, which should help a little bit. The Razorbacks haven’t been thoroughly beat down by any team this year, which makes this spread interesting. They fought Alabama in their last road Game, although the 13-point loss looks deceiving. Before that, they won at Tennessee 24-20.

Starting with the Ole Miss offense, this is still basically the same team as last year. Chad Kelly may be more accurate than Bo Wallace at quarterback, but he’s also extremely turnover prone. He has tossed an interception in six straight Games and has thrown seven in his last three. That’s not a good rate. The Rebels still lack a dominant run Game and are once again led by Jaylen Walton, who has just 506 yards and three TDs on the year. The biggest difference maker for Ole Miss is wide receiver LAquon Treadwell, who is one of the best in the Conference with 870 yards and six TDs.

Arkansas’ defense can be feisty at times, and it could easily keep this Ole Miss offense in check, much like they did against Alabama.

The other end has been the bigger question for the Razorbacks, although they did Score54 points against Auburn in their last SEC Game. They’ll continue their ground-and-pound approach here against a solid Ole Miss rush defense. The Rebels are 25th in the nation, allowing 121.6 rushing yards per Game.

Running back Alex Collins has hit 100 yards in five of his last six Games, but couldn’t do anything against Alabama. While he should have more success here, there is a chance that Collins has trouble finding holes. If that’s the case, quarterback Brandon Allen will take on a bigger role. He’s been better this season, but still lacks inconsistency. He has 15 TDs on the year to go with 5 INTs, while completing 63.2% of his passes.

Arkansas is dealing with a lot of injuries, but with Allen and Collins healthy, that’s all that matters. The one thing going in Mississippi’s favor is that they took down Texas A&M by 20 points in their last home Game. If their defense can replicate that outing, then they’ll be in business.

The underdog has covered in Four straight between these schools, while the Razorbacks are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Our Pick – Arkansas has played everyone tough this year. We have this Game right around the number so we’ll go ahead and grab the +11 in what could be a close Game. Arkansas +11

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