Baylor
vs.
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Football Pick
11/21/15
There are two huge Big 12 Games this weekend with this one being the only one including an undefeated team. Surprisingly, Oklahoma State is the last team in the Conference without a loss, something no one expected before the season. The Cowboys host Baylor this weekend and opened as a -1 point favorite (at 5 Dimes Sportsbook) playing in Stillwater.
The home team has won five straight in this meeting and has scored at least 41 points in each of those Games. And keeping in line with the first 10 weeks of the season, it’s almost expected that the winner of this Game will Scoreat least that many points. The Big 12 is known for high-scoring Games and weak defenses and this one will likely be another example of that.
Baylor is coming off its first loss of the year, a 44-34 home Game against Oklahoma. In the end, the Bears haven’t looked over-the-top good all year beating mediocre teams so it wasn’t too big of a surprise that they lost. Baylor is playing with a backup quarterback and the defense is struggling to stop anyone.
Oklahoma State has been in that same boat, but has come out on top in all of their close Games. The Cowboys have escaped against the likes of Texas, Kansas State and just last week Iowa State in a comeback 35-31 win. There’s no doubt the home crowd will be juiced for this one, much like the TCU win a couple weeks ago.
The season is far from over for these schools after this Game, as Baylor travels to TCU the week after and OK State hosts Oklahoma.
This Game could easily be a repeat of the OK State-TCU Game a couple weeks ago, when the Cowboys won 49-29. It’s going to depend on what Jarrett Stidham can do for Baylor. He has looked solid the last couple Games, but he’s still a level below Seth Russell. Stidham tossed for 257 yards and two TDs against the Sooners, but also had two interceptions. The reason OK State won big against TCU was because of Four interceptions thrown by Trevone Boykin. There’s no doubt the Bears will need to Scorein this Game and that starts with Stidham having success. Receiver Corey Coleman (1,229 yards, 20 TDs) will look to have a better Game than the 51 yards he had last week.
Baylor also has a solid running Game with Shock Linwood (1,149 yards, 9 TDs) and it’d be wise for them to run it plenty to keep OK State’s high-pace offense off the field. Linwood had 21 carries for 103 yards against the Sooners, but they would probably like for him to have more than that.
As for the Cowboys, this offense has been cruising, despite some struggles against Iowa State last weekend. Quarterback Mason Rudolph only has one interception in the last Four Games to go with nine touchdowns, which has been key. Baylor, coming off a Game against a high-flying Oklahoma offense, will have its hands full, despite a weak ground Game for the Cowboys. Speedster James Washington has been unstoppable lately for OK State, and should be a big piece yet again in a high-scoring Game.
Baylor has a shot here, but it will be tough on the road for Stidham. Can Oklahoma State keep playing with fire in these close Games and come out on top? If so, a spot in the playoff could be waiting for them.
The Cowboys have covered in eight straight Games between these teams played in Stillwater, and they are also 8-1 ATS in the last nine overall.
Our Pick – Our model predicts a high scoring affair decided by a point. Other numbers we like to use suggest a similar outcome. Hard to come up with a soid pay one way or the other in this type of a Game. Both teams are going to Scoreplenty and ultimately this Game is going to be decided by a mistake or two.
Nothing strong, but we’re going to lean towards Oklahoma State here. They’re undefeated with a chance to do big things this year if they can stay that way. Playing at home, we’ll take Our chances. Oklahoma State pk