Clemson – Syracuse College Football ATS Pick

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Clemson

vs.

Syracuse

ACC Football

Free Pick

11/14/15

Clemson is the No. 1 team in the land according to the CFP rankings and they backed that up last week with a win against Florida State. At this point, there’s nothing holding the Tigers back from an undefeated regular season. Syracuse has been in free fall since starting the year 3-0. Because of that, Clemson is a huge -28 point road favorite at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.

Clemson has an extremely favorable Schedule this year with two home Games against its hardest competition, but that’s not stopping anyone from doubting them. An undefeated record in a Power 5 Conference is good enough for the rankers. Even in the ACC title Game, it would be a surprise if the Tigers aren’t favored by double digits.

Syracuse hasn’t had as kind of Schedule, but that probably hasn’t mattered much since the Orange are just not that good this year. A part of that is due to an early-season injury to starting QB Terrel Hunt, but this team has more than one problem. Unfortunately, current starting QB Eric Dungey may miss this Game, which could make things even worse for this offense.

The hope for Syracuse is that Clemson looks ahead in this Game and doesn’t play to full potential. Because if the Tigers play to full potential, this Game will be a lot worse than what the spread suggests. Syracuse hasn’t been able to stop much on the defensive end all season and this Game is no different.

Clemson will probably pound the ball with Wayne Gallman in the running Game, who has hit 100 yards in six of his last seven. It’s unlikely ‘Cuse will hold him below that. And even if Deshaun Watson doesn’t have a good passing day, he’ll still pick up plenty of yards with his legs. But there’s no reason to think he wont have success through the air with Artavis SCott (56 receptions) taking over as his top option this year.

It should be said that Syracuse hasn’t been that terrible on defense this year, they just haven’t been good. At home, the Orange have covered Four of five Games this year, including a 34-24 loss to LSU earlier in the year, so there’s a chance. Syracuse seems to fall over whenever playing on the road, having allowed 40 points in all Four of those Games. But with this one being at home, there’s a little bit of hope.

Clemson hasn’t been an amazing road team this year, although has only had to travel in three Games so far. The Tigers allowed 41 points to NC State the last time they played on the road. The problem for Syracuse could be scoring points, especially if Eric Dungey misses this Game. If that’s the case, sophomore transfer Zack Mahoney will likely get the call. The good news is that he threw three TDs and put 24 points on the board against LSU the last time he saw significant action. The bad news was that he completed 42.1% of his passes.

‘Cuse doesn’t have the greatest ground Game, but if Mahoney can provide a spark with his legs, that would help. And there’s always a chance that Clemson is still celebrating after last week’s monumental win over Florida State.

Clemson won this Game just 16-6 last year at home, but the Tigers have a much better offense this time around.

The over is 8-1 in Syracuse’s last nine Games overall, but the under is 11-2 in Clemson’s last 13 Games on field turf. Neither one of these teams has many trends, although they are a combined 1-10 ATS in November.

Our Pick – If you have followed us here at BW for any length of time, you know that laying 4 TD’s is something we just won’t do. Too many things can go wrong. We have this one close to the number. We don’t lie the Game, but for the purposes of making a selection here, we’ll take Syracuse to find a way to stay within the spot. After all, they were able to play LSU tough. So, why not? Syracuse +28

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