Georgia – Vanderbilt Football Pick

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Georgia

vs.

Vanderbilt

College Football Pick

9/12/15

Georgia has been the SEC East preseason favorite for a number of years now, but it seems like year-after-year, there is something that derails that prediction. The Bulldogs kickoff SEC play with a road Game at a Vanderbilt team that lost to Western Kentucky opening weekend. As expected, the Bulldogs are a sizable favorite at -20.5 points (at 5 Dimes) on the road.

With new quarterback Greyson LAmbert (Virginia transfer) in tow, Georgia did what was expected of them, beating Louisiana Monroe 52-14 behind a ground Game that racked up 243 yards and Four touchdowns. It was nothing new from the Bulldogs, who are expected to roll with Nick Chubb and Keith Marshall all season long. LAmbert looked solid and did everything that was needed from him in a blowout win. Their defense was stout, although allowing 13 catches and 153 yards to one guy wasn’t ideal.

The same cannot be said about Vanderbilt. But in reality, the Game kind of went as expected. The Commodores opened as a -2 or -3 point favorite against the Hilltoppers, but ended up closing as a 2 or 2.5-point underdog, depending where you looked. So a 14-12 home loss to a Conference USA team maybe wasn’t that surprising.

WKU is actually a solid team, so we can’t fault Vandy too much, but it wasn’t a great start to Derek Mason’s second year in charge. The Commodores were young last year, which led to three wins, but were expected to win more with more experience in 2015.

The Bulldogs dominated this matchup last year 44-17 behind Todd Gurley and Chubb, going for a combined 241 yards and three touchdowns. The same will probably happen again, but this time with Chubb and Marshall. Right now, Georgia’s offensive line and running Game are just too good for Vandy to do anything about it. Maybe quarterback is still a question with LAmbert, but again he may not be needed a ton in this matchup.

As for Vanderbilt, to cover this Game, they’ll need to do a lot more on the offensive end. SCoring three points in the first three quarters against a Western Kentucky defense that finished 121nd in FBS scoring last year is unacceptable. The Commodores turned the ball over three times in the process and were never really consistent. Johnny McCrary threw for 217 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs, while Ralph Webb led a running Game that couldn’t break anything off for more than 19 yards. Something will have to change for this offense if Vandy is to come within 20 points of Georgia in this Game.

And right now, there isn’t a whole lot that says Vanderbilt can keep up. Georgia should be able to reach the 40-point mark again, but does Vanderbilt have what’s needed to even reach 20 points? The Bulldogs are primed to win the SEC East and an opening SEC win would help that cause.

Our Pick – This is one of those talent gap Games we often speak about. In otherwords, there will ALWAYS be a talent gap between these two programs. Once or twice a decade Vandy may put a run together and be competitive and even spring an upset like in 2013, but generally speaking, we’re looking at a Georgia win by a large margin.

Our model, using last years data, agrees with the above. However, tread lightly here. This is also a spot where 90% of the action being taken on this Game has come in on Georgia which is always ared flag. Nothing is ever as easy as the public thinks.

No play for us. Just a weak lean towards Georgia -21. Be careful. The back door cover is always a possibility!

 

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