Miss State – Arkansas NCAAF Point Spread Pick

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Miss State

vs.

Arkansas

SEC

College Football

Pick – Analysis

11/21/15

After a slow start, Arkansas is finally playing like projected, much like last season. The Razorbacks have won Four straight and if they can extend that to six, could find themselves in a decent bowl Game with an 8-4 record. Mississippi State has struggled against the best teams in the SEC and is coming off a beat down from Alabama. Playing at home, the Razorbacks are a -3.5 point favorite at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.

Mississippi State had high hopes of upsetting Alabama last weekend, but they didn’t even come close in a 31-6 loss. The Bulldogs have seven wins on the year, but haven’t beaten anyone in-Conference with a winning record. Wins at Auburn and Missouri look nice, but neither of those teams are relevant this year.

Arkansas was in the same spot a month ago, but it seems as if they’ve finally come around. The Razorbacks have won two straight road Games at Ole Miss and LSU, both as underdogs. Last Game, they went into LSU and used a couple big plays to beat the Tigers 31-14. It’s quite a turn from a team that lost early-season Games against Toledo and Texas Tech. Because of those recent wins, Arkansas could easily finish second in the SEC West this year, which is an impressive feat.

Arkansas is running over everyone and there’s no reason to believe that Miss. State can stop them. Alex Collins has hit 100 yards in eight Games this year, including 141 against LSU last week. He has 1,209 yards and 14 TDs for the season. Even backup RB Kody Walker has looked good in recent Games. The Bulldogs were just run over by Derrick Henry and the same thing could happen here. With that being the case, quarterback Brandon Allen probably won’t be asked to do much yet again. While he threw for 442 yards and six TDs against Ole Miss, Allen only attempted 16 passes at LSU.

On the other end, Mississippi State should be able to keep up, but Dak Prescott could have some trouble. Arkansas has a decent defense and if they get a lead, could lead to problems for Prescott. Prescott is MSU’s entire offense and that may be an understatement.  He leads the team with 432 yards and seven TDs on the ground to go with 18 TDs and 2 INTs through the air. Without a running Game against ‘Bama, this offense was held to six points. Considering what Arkansas did against LSU and Leonard Fournette, this could be a similar result for the Bulldogs.

At its peak, Mississippi State won this meeting 17-10 last season as its defense held Allen and Collins in check. With a weaker defense this season, that may not be the case again. The Razorbacks will look to end a three-Game losing streak in this matchup.

The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings played in Arkansas and the favorite is also 5-1 ATS in the last six overall. The spread seems a bit small for how Arkansas has played lately, while Mississippi State is still looking for an actual good win. And there’s also the possibility that the Bulldogs look ahead to next week’s matchup with Ole Miss.

Our Pick – Neither team has really impressed this year. Sure, Arkansas is off a big win over LSU but they also gave up 52 points to Ole Miss and 46 to Auburn.

We used Miss State as a Key Release last week against Bama and we paid the price, However, we wouldn’t have played them if we didn’t think there was something to this team. We still like their defense and think this Game goes to the wire.

There are still +4’s out there which we’ll gladly take. Miss State +4

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