Oklahoma State – Texas Tech CFB Spread Winner

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Oklahoma State

vs.

Texas Tech

Big 12

Football Pick

10/31/15

Is Oklahoma State as good as its undefeated record? We’ll find out soon enough. After traveling to Texas Tech for this Game, the Cowboys still have TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma on the Schedule. Even in this Game, they aren’t getting a ton of respect against a 5-3 Red Raiders team. The Cowboys are just a -3 point road favorite at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.

OK State hasn’t had a difficult Schedule, but they had trouble against mediocre Big 12 teams. They escaped past Texas and Kansas State with a bit of luck and then took down West Virginia by a touchdown before blowing out Kansas. The Cowboys are No. 12 in the country, but no one really believes that, otherwise this spread would be a lot higher. The same thing happened last year for this team starting 5-1 and then they lost five straight.

Texas Tech had a great win at Arkansas, but that no longer looks too impressive. And then the Red Raiders had to play the gauntlet of the three best teams in the Big 12 and they came up short in all of them. But even with allowing 60 points per Game in those contests, they at least could Scoreon offense, which is why they are a viable upset pick here.

The problem, however, is on the defensive end. If Oklahoma State can get rolling with its up-tempo offense, it might be Game over before the second half starts. Mason Rudolph remains a problem at quarterback for the Cowboys due to his inconsistencies. He has turnover issues and has just one TD compared to three interceptions in the last three Games. Still, Rudolph can run this offense and is efficient at times (437 yards, 3 TDs vs. Kansas State). Their running Game isn’t all that great, which doesn’t help. Rennie Childs and Chris Carson split duties, neither of which average more than 4.1 yards per carry.

But still, the Cowboys are averaging 40 points per Game. They aren’t at the same level as TCU or Baylor, but Texas Tech’s defense will have its issues.

On the other end, the Red Raiders should be able to keep up. OK State only gives up 18.9 points per Game on the year, but that’s a faulty stat incorporating three non-Conference Games and Kansas. Then again, their defensive line can’t be ignored and get to opposing QBs often.

Patrick Mahomes struggled against a better Oklahoma defense last week and threw Four picks. He’ll be looking to improve on that effort and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him and receiver Jakeem Grant (56 receptions, 774 yards) have a big day. Running back DeAndre Washington is also a player to look out for, who has nine total touchdowns with 837 rushing yards and 21 receptions. He’s an all-around threat.

Texas Tech has played well at home this year (almost beating TCU), but hasn’t played a mediocre team in LUbbock yet; it’s either been a Top 5 team or bottom of the barrel one. However, OK State has had Tech’s number for multiple years now, averaging 55.5 points per Game in the last Four contests.

The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these schools, while the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in the last six overall. The over has hit in Texas Tech’s previous seven home Games.

Our Pick – We wanted to find a reason to take the Red Raiders here. Afterall, they are at home in a big spot, getting points and we know they can find the end zone. However, very difficult to back a team that’s ranked 121st against the run and 114th against the pass.

The Cowboys are just as explosive offensively as Texas Tech but they also own a respectable defense. Oklahoma State has won the last 6 in this series and we see that trend continuing. Oklahoma State -3
 

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