Texas – Baylor NCAAF Point Spread Pick

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This was supposed to be a big Game for Baylor, possibly needing a blowout to impress Playoff voters before the season ended. Instead, they are already out of the discussion with two losses partly due to a couple injuries. The Bears are still favored by -20.5 points (at 5 Dimes Sportsbook) against a disappointing Texas team.

The Bears still have a chance to finish tied for second in the Big 12, but that obviously wasn’t the goal before the season. In one of the hardest stretches of any team in the country, Baylor fell to Oklahoma, won at Oklahoma State and then lost in overtime to TCU last week. That’s the kind of thing that happens when you lose your starting quarterback, and then his backup, and are forced to play the original third-stringer against a team like TCU on the road.

Baylor quarterback Chris Johnson started at TCU and didn’t do much in a massive downpOur, completing 7-of-24 passes for just 62 yards. Both teams took a run-heavy approach (Baylor had 71 carries), but the Horned Frogs won in the end. This Game will be a bit drier, but with Johnson at quarterback, the spread still seems a little high.

Texas is 4-7 and hasn’t looked good, there’s no doubt about that. But this is the Longhorns’ last Game of the season, while Baylor still has a bowl Game to look forward to. If the Longhorns got blown out again, it would be a poor way to go out for the seniors. Texas at least showed some fight last Game in a 48-45 loss to Texas Tech.

If the Texas can play offense like that, they should be able to cover in this Game. Baylor doesn’t have an outstanding defense by any means. Freshman running back Chris Warren III went off for Texas last Game, going for 276 yards and Four touchdowns. Tyrone Swoopes was back in at quarterback and he did a decent job as well, mainly on the ground rushing for 98 yards and two touchdowns.

The other end has been the problem for Texas, and Baylor could Score50 points even if all they do is run the ball. The Longhorns allowed 293 yards and 5 TDs to Texas Tech last week on the ground, so there’s no telling what Baylor will do.

Shock Linwood (1,298 yards, 10 TDs) is battling an injury, but even if he isn’t full strength, the Bears have a multitude of guys to hand off to. Devin Chafin led the way against TCU with 119 yards and two TDs. Expect a lot of running in this Game, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be low scoring. Neither team has a great defense, which means this Game could be a usual high-scoring Big 12 Game. The over/under was sitting around 69 points in midweek. Although it should be noted the last two meetings have been a little lower scoring with Baylor winning 28-7 last year and 30-10 the year before.

The Bears have covered in five straight Games in this meeting, while the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven. The Longhorns have failed to cover in five straight road Games.

Our Pick – Baylor -20

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