Pick – Analysis
Texas Tech had a chance to make some noise in the Big 12 a couple weeks ago, but failed to capitalize. Oklahoma is coming off a huge road win and has a favorable Schedule before traveling to Baylor. The Sooners opened as a -15.5 point favorite, but that quickly went to -14.5 on Monday at 5 Dimes Sportsbook. (**Note – betonline opened the Game -12)
A week after losing to Texas 24-17, the Sooners absolutely destroyed a viable Kansas State team 55-0. It was so embarrassing that Bill Snyder had to apologize to KSU fans after the loss. Meanwhile, Texas Tech was maybe looking ahead last weekend in a 10-point win over Kansas. The Red Raiders have had two freebies since falling to TCU and Baylor in back-to-back Games.
With Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes healthy, this team can keep up with almost anyone and that’s a good reason the spread dropped. If the Raiders can match what they did in the TCU Game, losing 55-52, there’s no reason they can’t compete with Oklahoma.
The interesting story line for this Game is new Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield. He transferred from Texas Tech two years ago and according to him, has had no contact with head coach Kliff Kingsbury since. Mayfield has plenty of motivation, but apparently Kingsbury and Tech do as well.
Before the KSU Game, Oklahoma hadn’t really put it all together yet. The passing Game has had success with Mayfield (19 TDs, 3 INTs) and Sterling Shepard (499 yards, 5 TDs), but they haven’t really found many holes in the ground Game. That changed against Kansas State, although that may have just been a result of being up by 35 points at half time. Nevertheless, this Sooners offense is still cooking and is up against a defense that has gotten torched by good offenses.
Oklahoma won this matchup 42-30 last year and got absolutely nothing from the passing Game. It could be an opposite situation in this one with Mayfield. But will the Sooners be able to contain Mahomes, who threw for 393 yards and Four TDs in last year’s Game? The spread was 14 points and Tech got a backdoor cover after a 39-yard TD pass with one second left.
Mahomes hasn’t been entirely healthy this year, but he’s still slinging the ball like crazy, throwing for at least 354 yards in Four straight Games. He has 20 touchdowns and six interceptions on the year. His favorite target Jakeem Grant (49 receptions, 719 yards, 4 TDs) will get plenty of looks. An improved part of Tech’s Game has been with running back DeAndre Washington, who already has 743 yards and 7 TDs on the year. He’s averaging a full yard more per carry than he did in 2014.
It’s unlikely Texas Tech will hold Oklahoma below 40 points, but as long as Mahomes is in there, there’s always the threat of another backdoor cover.
The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams in Norman and the over has hit in Four straight. The Sooners are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Games following an ATS win, while the Red Raiders are also 1-5 ATS in their last six road Games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Our Pick – This line is worth watching to see if it drops some. This pick is being psted on Tuesday, so, lots of time for that to happen. Either way, Our numbers say Oklahoma wins this one going away fo we’ll lay the number here. Sooners -14.5