Michigan State – Indiana College Football ATS Pick

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Michigan State



Big 10

College Football Pick


Maybe Michigan State’s win over Notre Dame wasn’t all that impressive. A week after winning as a touchdown underdog on the road, the Spartans completely flopped at home against a Wisconsin team that struggled to beat Georgia State the week prior. In college football, nothing is ever what it seems, at least in the first month. The Spartans opened are a -8.5 point favorite at Indiana at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.

But one thing we can say for almost certain is that Indiana still isn’t very good at football. The Hoosiers at least got out to a nice start, winning a couple Games against lowly teams, but that winning record will slowly turn into a losing record. Indiana hosts Michigan State this weekend and then travels to Ohio State.

There isn’t much to say about Michigan State’s loss against Wisconsin. They were outplayed most of the way and once they were down by more than a touchdown, they didn’t have the offense to come back, especially against a good defense. But the Spartans should get back on track in this Game. One thing Indiana lacks is a good defense and that’s seen in the last time these teams played.

A year ago, Connor Cook threw off for 398 yards and Four touchdowns in a 52-26 win. But it can’t be overlooked that the Hoosiers were actually in the Game for most of the way before MSU outscored IU 24-0 in the Fourth quarter. The Hoosiers were tough through three quarters, getting yards in the air and on the ground with MSU only leading 28-26 entering the Fourth.

The difference for the Hoosiers is that their offense isn’t as good with Richard LAgow at quarterback, who has seven TDs and 5 INTs through the first three Games. After a couple easy Games, LAgow threw five interceptions against the first real defense he saw this year in the loss to Wake Forest. With ball-hawking DBs in the Spartans secondary, LAgow could be headed for more interceptions.

But again, it wouldn’t be surprising if Indiana at least moves the ball, especially at home. Running back Devine Redding is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and could find room to roam and if Michigan State gave up big plays to Wisconsin’s offense, then it’s not out of the question for LAgow and Redding to carve up some yards.

On the other end, it’s a different story for the Hoosiers. Their defense remains a question and even if Tyler O’Connor isn’t the greatest of quarterbacks, that probably won’t matter in this one. O’Connor had success against a weaker Notre Dame defense and should do the same here. But after tossing three interceptions last week, Michigan State will likely lean on the running Game as much as possible, whether that’s LJ SCott or Gerald Holmes. OUtside of a costly fumble against Wisconsin, SCott has looked pretty dynamic for the Spartans this year.

Coming off a loss, a lot of people will be backing Mark Dantonio’s squad to rebound against a weak opponent, but last year’s result can’t be forgotten. Indiana may be able to move the ball and without a high-scoring offense for Michigan State, this one may be closer than some think. Indiana +8.5

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