Missouri – Florida NCAAF Game Preview and Pick to Cover the Spread

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College Football Pick


Due to a hurricane in the way, Florida had a week off and maybe it was for the best after the Gators failed to do anything impressive in their win at Vanderbilt. They get a similarly defensive Missouri team this week, who is also coming off bye, although not due to the hurricane.

After getting upended by Tennessee, the Gators are still looking to get back to their early season form. That said, they looked good in the early Games because the competition was weaker. And once the Vols turned on the pressure in the second half, Florida couldn’t handle it. The Gators didn’t fully regroup as they were outgained on the ground by a mediocre Vanderbilt team in their last Game. Without two interceptions by the ‘Dores quarterbacks, the result could’ve been different.

To help matters for Florida, it looks like LUke Del Rio should be back under center after missing the last two Games and getting the week off. When these teams met last year, it was a simple result for the Gators. They held Missouri’s offense down to three points, got a pick-six late and moved the ball just enough to Scorea couple touchdowns in the first quarter before not doing anything the rest of the way.

This year may be a little different, as Drew Lock was inexperienced in the previous meeting. Lock has been a lot better this season with 14 touchdowns and Four interceptions, but his struggles of old popped up in the 42-7 loss at LSU last Game. If LSU can do that to Lock, then Florida could probably do the same.

And without Lock doing anything, it’s hard to see the Tigers scoring more than 10 points in this Game on the road. Ish Witter and Damarea Crockett have been fine out of the backfield, but it’s unlikely either one of them has much success in this Game. If Lock can’t complete 50% of his passes, this could be a similar result to last year.

The best chance Florida has at covering is through Del Rio as long as he plays. Otherwise, the keys will be given to Austin Appleby once again, who hasn’t shown too much. That said, it’s not like either of these guys are Game breakers, nor is Jordan SCarlett in the running Game.

But Missouri’s defense hasn’t been at the same level as a year ago and that was evident in the recent loss to LSU. They gave up a ridiculous 418 yards and six touchdowns on the ground even with Leonard Fournette out. The problem for the Gators is that their running Game isn’t nearly as good as LSU’s.

With that being the case, this looks like another slow, grind-it-out type of Game for Florida, similar to the win at Vanderbilt and last year’s Game against Missouri. For those backing the Gators, they’ll be hoping Del Rio can show some magic like he did in the Four-touchdown performance against Kentucky a month ago.

The Gators are 1-4 ATS this year while the Tigers are 3-2 ATS.

Our Pick – Not impressed with either squad here. Missouri was embarassed the last time they took the field, falling to LSU by a score of 42-7. Typically, if a team has any ability and fight in them whatsoever, you’d expect a complete turn around following a pathetic performance like that. Look for a big effort from Mizu here. Missouri +13

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