College Football Pick
Boise State is undefeated and the 15th ranked team in the nation and out of their 5 Games they have only had 1 close one. They rank in the top 20 in the nation in passing yards per Game and opponents’ points allowed per Game. The Broncos are riding a 5-Game winning streak over Colorado State and they have covered the spread in 4 of those match ups.
Colorado State snapped their 2-Game losing streak with a win in their last Game and they are 1-1 in MWC play. They are really not great on either side of the ball and they have lost their only road Game this season. However, in that loss they only lost by 7 points to Minnesota from the Big 10.
Colorado State beat Utah State 31-24 in their last Game where they covered on the road giving 6 points. Boise State was on the road in their last Game and they lit up the scoreboard in the 49-21 win over New Mexico covering as an 18.5-point road favorite.
Something has got to give in this Game, as while the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams the road team is also 4-1 ATS in the last 5 Games.
While the Rams don’t have a dynamic offense they do have a balanced one and they scored 31 points in their last Game. QB Collin Hill leads the team under center and he has 8 TD and only 2 INT in the last 4 Games. Michael Gallup (388 yards 3 TD) is his top target and in the backfield RB’s Dalyn Dawkins, who rushed for 125 yards against Utah State, and Izzy Matthews have each rushed for at least 282 yards on the season.
Boise State is better at run defense than pass defense, where they only rank 77th in the nation so Hill may have to air it out for CSU to pull off the upset.
Boise State is led by their pass defense that ranks 18th in the nation in passing yards per Game. QB Brett Rypien is coming off HUGE Game against New Mexico passing for 391 yards with 5 TD and 0 INT. Thomas Sperbeck and Cedrick Wilson have combined for 1,061 receiving yards and 10 TD and RB Jeremy McNichols did not have a good Game against New Mexico, but had rushed for 132 yards, 208 yards, and 116 yards in his previous 3 Games. Colorado State will have their hands full and they only rank 78th in the nation in pass defense and 87th in run defense.
CSU is 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games overall, and in their last 5 road Games the posted total has gone Under 4 times.
Boise State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home Games and in their last 9 home Games the posted total has gone Under 8 times.
Jason’s Pick: Boise State will win this Game and quite easily, but they have failed to cover in their last 5 home Games and that is a trend that will continue. The Rams will take the L, but cover the big 31-point spread.