Duke – Georgia Tech CFB Spread Winner

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Duke

vs.

Georgia Tech

College Football Pick

10/29/16

By Jason Green

Duke has lost 2 of their last 3 Games, but they only lost by 10 points in their last Game facing 7th ranked Louisville. The Blue Devils are winless in ACC play and while they do not have a dynamic offense they do rank tied for 32nd in the nation in opponents’ points allowed.

Georgia Tech snapped their 3-Game losing streak in their last Game, but it was nothing to write home about only beating out-of-Conference Georgia State by 11 points. They are the team tied with Duke in opponents’ points per Game and while the Yellow Jackets rarely air it out they do rank 22nd in the nation averaging 234.3 rushing yards per Game.

Georgia Tech has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 Games facing Duke.

Duke lost to Louisville 24-14 in their last Game where they were on the road and easily covered as a 35-point underdog. Tech beat Georgia State 35-24 and they covered as a 10-point favorite.

Duke did not embarrass themselves in losing to a top 10 Louisville team by only 10 points on the road, but they still gave up 469 total yards. What is concerning for the Blue Devils is that they gave up 288 rushing yards and now they face a solid rushing attack of the Yellow Jackets.

Duke QB Daniel Jones did have 2 TD in the loss to Louisville, but the rushing offense did not do much with the 2 lead rushers of Jela Duncan and Shaun Wilson each failing to rush for over 45 yards and each average less than 4 yards per carry. Tech’s defense ranks in the top 44 in the nation against the pass and the run.

Tech racked up 265 rushing yards in the win over Georgia State, but they also gave up 167 yards on the ground. The Yellow Jackets do not have one big gun in the backfield, but they have 4 players that have at least 230 yards led by back Dedrick Mills (446 yards 9 TD). QB Justin Thomas only has 760 passing yards on the season, but he is the 2nd leading rusher.

Duke ranks 52nd in the nation in run defense and unless they keep Tech from racking up a ton of rushing yards they may be in trouble.

Duke is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road Games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Games, and in their last 7 Games the posted total has gone Under 6 times.

Georgia Tech is 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 Games overall, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Games, and in their last 5 Games the Over record is 3-1-1.

Jason’s Pick:
The Yellow Jackets will have a strong Game on the ground this Saturday and that will be the key, as they will win and cover the spread. Ga Tech -6

 

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