Duke – Miami NCAAF Game Preview and Pick to Cover the Spread

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Duke Blue Devils

vs.

Miami Hurricanes

By Jason Green

11/26/16

Duke will not be making a bowl this season and it was because of their poor 2nd half. They have lost 4 of their last 5 Games and they were embarrassed in their last Game losing to Pitt 56-14. The Blue Devils only have 1 Conference win and at least the Dukies can revel in the fact that it is hoops season.

To say Miami has been up and down this season would be a major understatement. They won their first 4 Games of the season and were ranked, lost their next 4 Games, and then rebounded and have won 3 in a row. They trail North Carolina in the ACC Coastal Division and since they lost to them they cannot catch them and play in the Conference title Game. Still, if they get the W they will have 8 wins and play in a good bowl Game.

Miami has a solid passing offense and their defense ranks 16th in the nation only giving up an average of 18.7 ppg.

Duke was crushed in their last Game losing to Pitt 65-14 not covering as a 9.5-point underdog.

Miami won their last Game beating NC State on the road 27-13 where they covered the spread giving 2.5 points as the favorite.

Duke needs to forget about the Pitt Game where they gave up 461 yards, turned the ball over twice, and only rushed for 25 yards while giving up 224 rushing yards. In the Game Blue Devils QB Daniel Jones was pretty good passing for 243 yards with a TD and no picks, but he got no help from the backfield. While Jones has has not had an INT in his last 3 Games he only has 2 passing TD’s in that span.

The leading rusher for the season for Duke is Shaun Wilson, who had a grand total of 9 yards on 8 carries in the bad loss to Pitt.

Miami has a balanced and solid defense that ranks 46th in the nation against the pass and 38th against the run.

In Miami’s win over NC State they ranked up 415 yards and their D forced 2 turnovers. QB Brad Kaaya had a solid Game under center, but the big star was Mark Walton, who rushed for 120 yards averaging 6.3 yards per carry and scored 3 TD. These 2 will create problems for a Duke defense that does not rank in the top 60 in the nation against the pass or the run.

Duke is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games overall, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road Games, and in their last 9 road Games the posted total has gone Over 7 times.

Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games following a straight up win, 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and in their last 7 Games the posted total has gone Under 5 times.

Jason’s Pick: Duke has actually been a good bet this season and they had covered in 5 straight before not doing so against Pitt. However, they are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games facing Miami and that is a trend that will continue. Miami -15