College Football Pick
By Jason Green
The scenario is pretty easy for Duke, as they have to win their Game and then their season finale against Miami to be bowl eligible. Both of those Games on the road so it it is a tall task. They snapped their 3-Game skid in their last Game, which was a win over a ranked North Carolina squad and in their last 4 Games they have faced 3 top 25 teams.
Pitt will already play in a bowl, but if they win out they can improve the one they play in. They scored, by far, their biggest win of the season in their last Game when they beat 2nd ranked Clemson handing them their first loss of the season. They have a solid rushing offense, but their D only ranks 109th in the nation giving up an average of 35.2 ppg.
Duke beat North Carolina 28-27 in their last Game and they covered as an 11.5 home underdog.
Pitt obviously covered the 21.5-point spread as a road underdog beating Clemson in their house 43-42, which is one of the shockers of the college football season.
Duke beat UNC in their last Game with a balanced attack on offense with 467 yards, including 227 rushing yards and they forced 2 turnovers. Daniel Jones passed for 240 yards with a TD and 0 INT and he and RB Daniel Jones combined to rush for over 200 yards. Wilson has rushed for over 100 yards in 2 of his last 3 Games. Pitt beat Clemson last week in a barnburner even though they rank 2nd to last in the nation in pass defense. However, they rank 7th in the nation in run defense and that unit will be key in this Game.
In Pitt’s big upset over Clemson in their last Game the Panthers had 166 fewer yards, but took advantage of 3 Tigers turnovers and they rushed for 156 yards. They gave up a ton of passing yards, but stuffed the run. QB Nathan Peterman passed for over 300 yards with 5 TD and 0 INT and RB James Conner rushed for 132 yards.
Will Pitt have a let-down after their huge win against Clemson? Their offense will be facing a Duke D that ranks 59th in the nation in pass defense and 69th in run defense.
Duke is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road Games, and in their last 6 Games the posted total has gone Under 5 times.
Pitt is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home Games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home Games vs. a team with a losing road record, and in their last 4 home Games the posted total has gone Over every time.
Bettorsworld Pick – Duke +7.5