Florida
vs.
Alabama
SEC Football
Championship Pick
12/3/16
There’s no surprise in the SEC title Game, Alabama looks headed for yet another championship. The Crimson Tide finished undefeated while every other SEC team had at least three losses, Florida included. The Gators don’t present much of a threat, but did cover in this Game last year. That said, the Tide still opened as -24.5 point favorites. The Game will be played at the Georgia Dome.
When these teams met in the same spot last year, Alabama was a 16.5-point favorite and won 29-15. But the Game wasn’t as close as the score. Florida’s first touchdown came on a punt return and then they got a 46-yard pass TD late in the Fourth quarter. For a team that rushed for 15 yards and allowed 233, the 15 points they scored was pretty good. But if this Game goes the same way, which is more than possible, those 15 points may be hard to get.
The obvious concern for the Gators is that they haven’t been able to Scoreagainst better teams like Arkansas (31-10 loss) and Florida State (31-13 loss). Now against easily the best overall team in the country, the questions are evident.
Florida has had a slightly better ground Game this year than in 2015, but expecting them to move the ball with Jordan SCarlett would be a mistake. SCarlett is averaging over five yards per carry on the year, but hasn’t surpassed Four YPC in three of the past five Games. It’s a wonder if he’ll get to 20 yards against Alabama, who have already held LSU and Auburn in check.
All signs point to Austin Appleby getting another start under center even though LUke Del Rio dressed last Game. Either way, that shouldn’t make too big of a difference. Neither quarterback will have much success against this defense.
Covering this Game for the Gators will come down to the defense. With the spread hovering around 24 points, that should be possible. The Tide struggled at times against better defenses as seen in wins over LSU and even against Auburn last week. Sure, the Tide could Score30 or so points, but covering would mean they stop Florida to less than a touchdown.
Of course, the Gators have allowed 30-plus points in their two most recent losses and there’s no reason to believe they can stop this ‘Bama rushing attack.
Damien Harris has been the main guy and averages more than seven yards per carry, but Nick Saban decided to give Bo SCarbrough more run last Game as he had 17 carries for 90 yards. Either way, the Gators won’t be able to hold down this ground Game the entire way, with quarterback Jalen Hurts also a factor. Saban let Hurts throw a little more last Game and that resulted in two interceptions, but also a number of nice plays. That’s what happens when your receivers are some of the best in the country.
Florida may be able to hold this offense down for parts of the Game, but keeping them in check the entire way seems unlikely.
The Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss and 12-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site Games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 following an ATS loss. The over has hit in Four of the last five meetings between these schools with Alabama going 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12.
Our Pick – Alabama/Florida OVER 40