Florida
vs.
Arkansas
College Football Pick
11/5/16
Florida hasn’t looked great, but the SEC East may fall into their lap at this point. The Gators hold a half Game lead over… Kentucky. Every other competitor has three losses after Tennessee’s latest meltdown. But things remain far from easy for Florida, on the road at Arkansas for this one. The Gators still were sitting as -5.5 point favorites early in the week.
It took some time for this line to come out, mainly because Arkansas quarterback Austin Allen was battling injury, but he returned to practice Monday. Arkansas would’ve probably been favored in this Game two weeks ago before the Auburn meeting, but they were dismantled 56-3 in that contest. Before that, the Hogs took down Ole Miss 34-30. So far, it’s been their defense that has been the main issue.
As for Florida, it’s been the usual for them with the offense struggling to get going. The Gators have won three straight since falling to the Vols, but two of those were against Vanderbilt and Missouri with the latest coming against Georgia, who is still only 2-4 in SEC play. In addition, they have only played two true road Games all season with the first being the Vols and then a lackluster 13-6 win over Vandy.
The Gators may be favored, but it’ll be tough to back this offense on the road, even against a defense that has struggled.
LUke Del Rio was supposed to revive the offense after being out from injury, but that hasn’t exactly been the case. Despite beating Missouri by 26 points, he still completed just 47.4% of his passes and threw three picks. And against Georgia, he threw for 131 yards, one touchdown and an interception. The running Game has been a bright spot, though, and the main reason they won the last two Games. Jordan SCarlett will be the main one to watch, but also LAmical Perine, both of whom are averaging more than 5.0 yards per carry.
And the last time Arkansas was on the field, they gave up an astronomical 543 rushing yards and seven touchdowns to Auburn. Florida may not have the same offense, but that run total is troubling and if the Gators are going to have success, it’ll be through the ground.
The question will be if Florida can hold down the Arkansas offense. The Hogs were absolutely miserable in that Game against Auburn, but throwing that one out, this offense has been pretty consistent. Most notably, they dropped 30 points on Alabama with 400 passing yards and three touchdowns from Austin Allen.
As long as Allen plays, you can usually count on him to provide a decent amount of points, especially at home. But for Arkansas to get an edge, they’ll need Rawleigh Williams III to find some room on the ground. In wins, he usually reaches 100-plus yards, but in losses, it’s the opposite. As long as he isn’t stopped to 22 yards like against Auburn, this offense will score.
Florida has been hard to trust on the road, but will Arkansas have enough to secure an upset?
The Gators are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road Games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road Games vs. a team with a winning home record, but 1-5 ATS in their last six following an ATS win. The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, but 4-1 ATS in their last five following a straight-up loss. In addition, Arkansas is coming off a bye week.
Our Pick – Florida has some nice looking numbers but what figures to hurt them here is that they have played a considerably weaker Schedule than Arkansas has. Arkansas is battle tested and looking to bounce back from an embarrassing blowout loss to Auburn. Arkansas +5.5