Houston – SMU College Football ATS Pick

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Houston

vs

SMU

College Football Pick

10/22/16

By Jason Green

Houston is the big betting favorite in this Game and they will also be a big Memphis fan this Saturday as well. The Cougars lone loss on the season was to Navy, who faced Memphis in a battle of the last 2 unbeaten teams in the AAC West. Houston got over their lone loss of the season with a win in their last Game, but it was a tough one beating Tulsa by 7 points.

SMU got off to a promising start to the season winning 2 of their first 3 Games, but they have dropped 3 in a row all in Conference play. They almost upset Tulsa in OT in their last Game, but can they Scorethe HUGE upset facing Houston? The Mustangs only wins of the season have come against North Texas and Liberty.

Houston has covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 Games facing SMU and last season at home they beat them 49-28.

Houston was at home in their last Game and beat Tulsa 38-31, but did not cover as big 21.5-point favorites. SMU lost to Tulsa 43-40 in OT in their last Game, but did cover as a 15-point road favorite.

Houston’s offense, which ranks 12th in the nation in ppg, is led by QB Greg Ward Jr. who has passed for 1,938 yards this season with 11 TD and 5 INT. He also leads the team in rushing and rushed for 142 yards last week facing Tulsa. He has to avoid the pick in this Game, as he has 3 in his last 2 Games. He has help in the backfield and his WR corps in a deep one with 3 players that have at least 442 receiving yards.

Can SMU keep up with the Houston offense? That is a big question and in their last Game facing Tulsa they gave up a total of 562 yards (247 passing yards and 315 rushing yards. The Mustangs only rank 96th in the nation in pass defense and 91st in run defense.

SMU used a balanced attack in the near upset of Tulsa, but they were only 4 of 19 on 3rd down conversions. QB Ben Hicks passed for 258 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT and RB Braeden West rushed for 124 yards averaging a solid 5.6 yards per carry. These 2 players are key and they may have to have big Games to light up the offense to offset their defensive issues. Houston ranks 51st in the nation in pass defense and 3rd in run defense, so Hicks may have to shoulder more of the load on offense.

Houston is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Games overall, 23-5-1 ATS in their last 29 road Games, and in their last 4 Games the posted total has gone Over every time.

SMU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home Games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Games, and in their last 7 Games the posted total has gone Under 5 times.

Jason’s Pick:
SMU will not be as fortunate this week as they were in their last Game facing Tulsa, as Houston will lay a beat down on them. The Cougars will light up the scoreboard and they will win and cover the 21-point spread.