Indiana – Florida Intl College Football ATS Pick

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9/1/16

Indiana will travel to the Sunshine state to take on Florida International to open their 2016 college football season. This Game opened up at Indiana -4 at some sportsbooks, before the betting public pounded the Hoosiers to where the Game now sits at Indiana -9.5 with a total of 61.

This is a rematch and revenge Game for FIU from last season as these two met in the 2nd week of the season in Indiana with the Hoosiers coming away with a 36-22 win. But it wasn’t easy. The Game was tied 22-22 early in the 4th quarter and the Hoosiers held just a TD lead late in the 4th before finally putting it away.

This Game holds some intrigue for us. That is because despite these two playing a close Game at the beginning of last season, Our Score prediction model, using last years data, has Indiana blowing the doors off of Florida International with the Hoosiers reaching the posted total of 61 all by themselves.

It’s really not all that difficult to understand what Our model is looking at. The model is looking at the strength of Schedule these two played, with the Hoosiers taking on teams like Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa and Michigan while Indiana was probably the strongest team FIU faced all year. The model is also looking at common opponents, such as Western Kentucky, who Indiana beat 38-35 while FIU lost to Western Kentucky in blowout fashion, 63-7.

Both teams return a good number of starters this year. That favors Florida International. These kids know they can play with the Hoosiers. They did just that a year ago. The revenge factor and the fact that this Game takes place in week 1 also favors FIU here. These early season Games are always dangerous for teams from a major Conference like the Big 10.

Despite those motivational factors and the close Game a year ago, we’re going to side with Indiana. We think the model has it right. The Hoosiers are the more talented team from top to bottom and perhaps that close Game from a year ago will actually motivate the Hoosiers. If they show up to play, Indiana takes this by at least 2 TD’s. Indiana -9.5 and OVER 61