Kansas State – Baylor College Football ATS Pick

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Kansas State



College Football Pick


By Jason Green

Kansas State had won 2 straight before losing to Oklahoma State in their last Game they need 1 more win to head to a bowl. They are .500 in Big 12 play and while they are on the road in this Game they are the slight favorite since Baylor lost QB Seth Russell in their last Game where the Bears gave up 45 points.

Russell was the leader of the Bears team and the senior is done for the season with an ankle injury suffered in the last Game. That Game was a bad one losing 45-24 against Oklahoma, which was the 3rd loss in a row for the Bears. In their last 2 Games their D has been torched and they need to turn that around or seriously light up the scoreboard to get back in the win column.

In the last 5 Games between these teams the home team is 5-0 ATS.

Kansas State lost to Oklahoma State 43-37 failing to cover as a 2-point favorite.

Baylor was on the road and lost to Oklahoma State in their last Game and they did not cover getting 17.5 point.

Kansas State is led by duel QB Zach Ertz and while he can air it out he is more dangerous with his legs with the Wildcats being a run first team. In the loss to OSU he did not do much in the air, but he galloped for 153 yards and 2 other KSU players rushed for at least 70 yards. The Wildcats did rack up 345 rushing yards in the Game, but they also gave up 637 total yards to OSU. Baylor has given up 107 points in their last 2 Games and one big concern for them in this Conference encounter is that they only rank 98th in the nation defending the run.

Not only did Baylor lose Russell in their last Game, but they were without the suspended RB Shock Linwood. He will be back in this important Game and Zach Smith will take over at QB. After coming in for Russell against Oklahoma he passed for 144 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. Linwood is Baylor’s all-time leading rusher and he will get a chance to add to his total since lead rusher Terence Williams is likely out with a knee injury.

Kansas State ranks a solid 10th in the nation defending the run and only 117th defending the pass. However, in the OU Game they did not defend anything well giving up 300 yards in the air and 253 yards on the ground.

KSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road Games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games overall, and in their last 5 Games facing a team with a winning home record the posted total has gone Under 4 times.

Baylor is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games overall, 29-12 ATS in their last 41 home Games, and in their last 9 Games the posted total has gone Under 7 times.

Jason’s Pick: Baylor is at home and they will step up in the absence of Russell and play well. This will be a close Game, but Baylor will not only cover the spread, but they will also get the W as well.