College Football Pick
Neither of these teams expected to fight for the Big 12 title and that’s exactly how it played out for them. Both are coming off wins and looking to end the regular season on a good note. The Horned Frogs, playing at home, are -4.5 point favorites.
These teams met a year ago in a vastly different situation. It was the middle of the season and TCU was the No. 2 ranked team in the country. Kansas State, meanwhile was dealing with injuries, but still put up a fight at home. Down 11 points in the Fourth quarter, the Frogs rallied for a 52-45 win.
This year, obviously, the stakes aren’t as high. TCU is still scoring, but its defense was a major flaw early in the year. They’ve turned it around somewhat in recent Games and that’s led to two wins in their last three. However, they have lost their last three home Games against OK State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma.
As for the Wildcats, they’ve won Four of their last five Games with their last win being Bill Snyder’s 200th. While they aren’t considered a great team by any means, Snyder once again has his team fighting as seen in close losses to West Virginia (one point) and OK State (six points). That may be a good enough reason to take the road team against the spread.
This Game more than likely won’t be as high scoring as a year ago. As said, TCU’s defense has looked a little better and has contained good offenses in recent weeks. A 31-9 win at Texas was more than impressive.
The Wildcats aren’t all that explosive with a run-first offense, but they can still Scorepoints as they’ve topped 30 points in Four straight. Quarterback Jesse Ertz leads the ground Game with 775 yards and nine touchdowns, while his passing numbers leave a lot to be desired with seven TDs to Four picks. At running back, freshman Alex Barnes has taken over for senior Charles Jones and that’s made a difference the last couple Games. Barnes has 232 yards and five touchdowns on just 29 carries in the last two.
As long as that run Game is working, Kansas State will continue to find a way to Scorepoints. But can the Wildcats stop TCU on the other end? At the least, they should limit them, similar to what KSU did against WVU and Texas.
The main question for the Horned Frogs is at quarterback where Kenny Hill has struggled mightily, failing to throw more than one touchdown in the last six Games. In that period, he has Four passing touchdowns to eight interceptions. Foster Sawyer has seen some work and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he got more time in the season finale. Because of those inconsistencies for Hill and Kyle Hicks in the running Game, that’s a good route to see Kansas State covering. Even in their win over Texas, Hicks ran for just 58 yards after 47 the week before. If Hicks has a similar outing, it’s hard to see TCU covering against Snyder’s team.
The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall, but 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road Games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Horned Frogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall, but 6-1 ATS in their last seven home Games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Our Pick – Kansas State +4.5