Maryland – Michigan NCAAF Game Preview and Pick to Cover the Spread

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Maryland

vs.

Michigan

College Football

11/5/16

Another week and another win for Michigan, who comes into this one at 8-0. The Wolverines didn’t cover against Michigan State, but took care of business in an in-state rivalry Game and that was all they needed. Back at home, they get a Maryland team coming off a loss at Indiana. The Wolverines are a -31 point favorite.

Michigan continues to run through its Schedule with little opposition. They’ve been given one or two tests, but against weaker teams, really pOur the points on. But covering this 30-point line won’t be the easiest task. The Wolverines faced a lesser Illinois team a couple weeks ago and failed to cover in a 41-8 win.

The one thing going for the Maryland offense right now is that starting quarterback Perry Hills is back under center. After a couple Games in which he failed to appear, the Terps could barely move the ball against Penn State and Minnesota. But with Hills back, they took down Michigan State and then dropped 36 points at Indiana last week. SCoring at Michigan will be tough, but Maryland could Scoreenough to get the cover.

It’s hard to fully look at last year’s matchup as Maryland was dealing with massive injuries at quarterback and they had to start a combination of Caleb Rowe and Daxx Garman at the time, with both combining to go 10-of-36 for 76 yards and three interceptions. The Wolverines won 28-0 and didn’t have to do all that much offensively.

This year, the situation should be a little different with Hills at quarterback. He’s completing 66.4% of his passes to go with 10 TDs and 3 INTs. Not great, but much better than his backup or whoever they had a year ago. In addition to that, the Terps have been finding a lot of room on the ground between Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison. Johnson is still averaging an insane 10.4 yards per carry on 60 totes, while Harrison is at 7.3 ypc on 79 carries. Obviously, they won’t reach those levels in this Game, but it’s a decent sign they could move the ball somewhat.

Of course, the other side is of great concern after allowing 42 points to Indiana last week. The Terps have been fine defensively, but get to face three straight ranked teams and things could easily look different a month from now.

It’s expected Michigan will run wild in this Game similar to what the Hoosiers did to Maryland last week when they had three running backs reach 100-plus yards. Not good. Whether it’s De’Veon Smith, Chris Evans, Karan Higdon, Ty Isaac, or whoever, the Wolverines will churn out plenty of yards on the ground.

In addition, quarterback Wilton Speight has looked improved in every Game this year and while his numbers aren’t crazy, he does what’s needed to win Games and Scorepoints. Michigan will get its points and possibly reach 50 again, so it will come down to what Hills can do.

The Terrapins are 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 following a straight-up loss. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six Games following an ATS loss, but they are coming off back-to-back ATS losses. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games vs. a team with a winning road record. The OVER is 14-2 in Michigan’s last 16 Games overall.

Our Pick – Maryland +31