Maryland – Penn State NCAAF Game Preview and Pick to Cover the Spread

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Penn State

College Football Pick


By Jason Green

Maryland has bolted out to a solid 4-0 start and they put up 50 points in their last Game, but are they a legit Big 10 contender? Their wins have come against the teams of Howard, Florida International, UCF, and Purdue. This Game facing Penn State may be their first real test of the season.

Penn State is coming off a solid OT win over Minnesota, handing them their first loss, and they are back to .500 in Conference play. Last season they beat Maryland in their house 31-30, but this time around they are a slight home underdog.

Maryland crushed Purdue 50-7 in their last Game easily covering the spread as an 11-point home favorite. Penn State beat Minnesota 29-26 in OT in their last Game and the Game was a Pick with Minnesota a 3-point favorite.

Can Penn State deal with Maryland’s new up-tempo offense? The Terps do not pass the ball much, but they have the nation’s 7th ranked rushing offense putting up 300 rushing yards per Game. The RB duo of Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison are each averaging over 7 yards per carry and each of them has rushed for at least 286 yards. While Penn State’s pass defense has been pretty good the same cannot be said about their run defense, which only ranks 105th in the nation.

QB Trace McSorley leads the PSU offense and he passed for 335 yards in the win over Minnesota. He has a solid WR corps and for the season he has 6 TD and 3 INT. Coming into the season RB Saquon Barkley had a lot of hype and big things were expected of him. He does lead the Nittany Lions in rushing, but he has not rushed for over 100 yards since the season opener and is averaging a pedestrian 4.4 yards per carry.

Maryland’s defense has been pretty good ranking 40th against the pass and 31st against the run, but you have to look at their Schedule and take that with a grain of salt.

Maryland is 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Conference Games, and they have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 road Games.

Penn State is only 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 Games overall, and 0-3-1 in their last 4 home Games.

We’ll get a better idea of whether Maryland is a contender or a pretender this week. Although, just how much of a test we’re not sure. The Penn State defense has been atrocious and while Maryland hasn’t exactly played a a tough Schedule, their offense should continue to have success this week.

The last two in this series were decided by 1 point and while Our model has Penn State winning by a little less than a TD, we’re going to side with Maryland to continue it’s winning ways and keep the mystery going another week. Maryland -1.5


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