Memphis – Cincinnati College Football ATS Pick

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College Football Pick


By Jason Green

The Tigers have shot themselves in the foot as of late losing 3 of their last 4 Games and sitting at 3-3 in AAC play they need a miracle to win the West Division and play in the Conference title Game. Still, every win is big and with each W they can improve the bowl they will play in. their D has fallen apart lately giving up an average of 50 points per Game in losing 3 of their last 4 Games.

The Bearcats have their backs up against the wall, as they need to win their last 2 Games just to make a bowl. They have lost 3 in a row and their offense has sputtered and has only scored a field goal in each of their last two Games. The one thing they have going for them, well besides being at home, is that they have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 Games against Memphis.

The Tigers lost their last Game where they were at home falling to South Florida 49-42 and they did not cover the spread as a 3-point underdog.

Cincy was creamed in their last Game losing to Central Florida 24-3 on the road where they did not cover as a 10.5-point underdog.

The Tigers’ offense has not been the issue this season, but their defense has. In the shootout loss to South Florida in their last Game they did have over 600 yards of total offense, but they also gave up 679 yards. Memphis failed to show up on run defense, which they only rank 100th in the nation, giving up 416 yards. Memphis QB Riley Furguson had a solid Game with 331 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT and a slew of Tigers, well 3 to be exact, rushed for over 75 yards.

Cincinnati has not been giving up a ton of points lately, but they still do not rank in the top 70 in the nation defending the pass or the run.

The Bearcats committed 3 turnovers in their loss to Central Florida in their last Game, where they actually outgained the Knights in total yards. Hayden Moore and Gunner Kiel, who has been the starting QB for most of the season, shared time under center and neither did that much except throw a couple of picks. RB Tion Green rushed for 71 yards in the UCF Game and he may get a heavy workload facing a Tigers’ run D that has struggled the whole season and was shredded in their last Game.

Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road Games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Games overall, and in their last 8 Games the posted total has gone Over 6 times.

Cincy is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Games overall, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home Games, and in their last 5 Games the posted total has gone Under every time.

Jason’s Pick: Memphis’ D has been giving up a ton of points lately in losing 3 of 4 Games, but they are still going bowling and are over .500. They will win and cover on the road in this Conference match up facing a Cincy team that has failed to cover the spread in their last 4 Games facing a team that has a winning record. Memphis -7 -115