Memphis – Navy CFB Spread Winner

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College Football Pick


By Jason Green

First place in the AAC West is up for grabs in this Game, as Navy and Memphis are the lone unbeaten teams in the conference. Navy has the upper hand and can really control their destiny with a win, as they already beat a top 10 Houston team in Conference play while Memphis faces them in their season finale.

Last season the Midshipmen put up 45 points in Memphis beating them in their house, which was their biggest point total ever until they lit up Houston for 46 points in their last Game. Navy is still the slight home underdog, but they are coming off their HUGE win over Houston and they are rested since their last Game with East Carolina was post-postponed due to weather.

Memphis has won 2 in a row and they have a dynamic offense that ranks 15th in the nation in points per Game.

In their last Game Memphis won their 2nd in a row beating Tulane 24-14, but they did not cover the spread as a 12.5-point road favorite. Navy beat Houston in their last Game winning 46-40 and covering the spread as a 15.5-point home underdog. Memphis will have their hands full facing a Navy team that has 4 players that have at least 164 rushing yards.

Memphis is led by Riley Ferguson (1,596 yards 12 TD 6 INT), who has been solid as of late, but has to avoid the INT. In the only loss for the Tigers this season he had 3 INT. The Tigers also have a good rushing attack and while they had some big runs in the Tulane Game and rushed for 163 yards they struggled on the ground for much of the Game.

Navy has not played the best D this season ranking 67th in the nation against the run and only 80th against the pass. In their big upset win over Houston they gave up 484 total yards and really struggled in the secondary giving up 359 passing yards. The key for Memphis is containing the run and if they can do that they should be in good shape with the defense that Navy has. However, if they cannot they may repeat last season and lose again to the Midshipmen.
Memphis is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games overall, 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and in their last 10 Games the posted total has gone Under 7 times.

Navy is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Conference Games, 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home Games, and in their last 5 home Games the posted total has gone Over every time.

Jason’s Pick:
Navy is rolling and rested and in their house they will win and take control of the AAC West division. Their rushing attack will be too much for Memphis to handle, like last season, and they will get the W handing the Tigers their 2nd loss of the season. Navy +2.5