College Football Pick
It’s been a rough season for both schools from Mississippi to say the least. Both sit with two SEC wins with Ole Miss the only one having a chance at six wins and a bowl Game (although MSU still has a shot with five wins). Things could get worse for Mississippi State this Game because the Rebels were -8 point home favorites early in the week.
Ole Miss was thought to be one of the better teams in the country at one point, as their first five losses came against ranked teams. But at what point does that matter? Last weekend kind of summed things up for the Rebels as they fell hard at Vanderbilt, 38-17.
It’s been even worse for the Bulldogs as they started the season with a loss to South Alabama. From there, losses against BYU and Kentucky fill the Schedule. At the least, both of these teams can say they beat Texas A&M, although that significance has dwindled.
The Rebels won this meeting last year 38-27 after jumping to an early 21-point lead in the first quarter. It’s expected that this one will be similarly high scoring and the over/under shows that. Also, the ineffectiveness of both of these defenses will help. Neither has done much all season, and both teams could reach 40 points in this Game.
The main issue of course for Ole Miss is that Shea Patterson will be starting at quarterback. He led the upset over Texas A&M, but struggled at Vandy, completing just 47.6% of his passes. That said, this Bulldogs defense is worse than those two, so Patterson should find enough success to put a decent amount of points on the board. And there’s no question, he will have to. Running back Akeem Judd has reached 100 yards just three times this year, and while he could do that again, Patterson is the main key for the Rebs offense.
Keep in mind, this MSU defense gave up 50-plus points the last two Games and 41 to Samford. Yet, Ole Miss isn’t much better. Giving up 38 points to Vanderbilt is considered bad by all standards.
And at the least, the Bulldogs will have their starting quarterback in this Game, Nick Fitzgerald. MSU has been bad, but one has to think their offense is good enough to keep this Game close, especially with Patterson at the other end.
Fitzgerald has been pretty good this year as Dak Prescott’s successor. He’s thrown for 18 TDs and 10 picks, but more importantly leads the team with 985 rushing yards and 12 more touchdowns. Similar to how he had six touchdowns against Arkansas, Fitzgerald is good enough to put points on the board and that could be enough to get the cover in the Egg Bowl.
The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and 1-8 ATS in their last nine road Games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six Games overall. The under has hit in five of the last six meetings between these teams, with the Rebs going 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings played in Oxford.
Our Pick – Miss State +8