Oklahoma – Texas Tech NCAAF Point Spread Winner

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Oklahoma

vs.

Texas Tech

College Football Pick

10/22/16

Texas Tech was thought to be a challenger in the Big 12 this season, but those notions are out the window as the Red Raiders already have three losses. They’ll try and turn the tide at home against an Oklahoma team that may have figured things out with three-straight wins.

Things haven’t been going nearly as well for Texas Tech who is coming off a 48-17 loss at home, a surprising result any time Patrick Mahomes is on the field. After hitting 50 points in the first Four Games of the year, it was quite the disappointment for the Red Raiders in the loss. Maybe the best news for them is that Oklahoma hasn’t played great defense this year, already allowing 46 points to TCU and 40 to Texas.

To have a shot of at least covering in this Game, the Red Raiders will obviously need to score. That means Mahomes will have to be around 400 to 500 passing yards to go with Four or five touchdowns and that’s a minimum.

In last year’s meeting, that wasn’t the case with Mahomes only reaching 233 yards while tossing Four picks. That all led to a big 63-27 loss. The difference this season may be Oklahoma’s defense, which still hasn’t shown much. The Sooners held Kansas State to 17 points over the weekend, but the Wildcats didn’t have a great offense to begin with and lost their starting QB during the Game. But if Mahomes tosses that many interceptions again, nothing will matter because Tech’s defense isn’t stopping anyone.

What we know with the Raiders is that they have one of the worst defenses in the nation. They have allowed 44-plus points in back-to-back Games and already allowed 68 to Arizona State earlier this year.

With how easily Oklahoma scored in this Game last year, there’s no reason to think this one will be any different. The Sooners ran for 405 yards and seven touchdowns as a team and could try and do that again or lean on Baker Mayfield and Dede Westbrook in the passing Game.

Over the last three Games, Westbrook has gone off for 26 receptions, 574 yards and eight touchdowns, which is off the charts and he could easily go for another 200 or so yards with a couple more touchdowns in this Game. That may be possible because running back Semaje Perine left the Kansas State Game with a pulled muscle and his status will be questionable for this Game. Even if Perine misses out, Joe Mixon is still in the backfield and he went for 154 yards and a couple touchdowns in last year’s win, second to Perine’s 201 yards and Four TDs.

There’s always a chance Texas Tech can cover this Game, but that all falls to the offense and Mahomes. If the Red Raiders put in a repeat performance of last week or last season against the Sooners, then they could easily lose by 40. Because as it stands, Oklahoma may not be forced to punt the entire Game.

Our Pick – Oklahoma -13.5