Ole Miss
vs.
LSU
College Football Pick
10/22/16
We’re six Games into the season, but no one really knows how good either of these teams is at this point. Ole Miss has three losses, but all of them have come against good teams, while they also dismantled Georgia. LSU is in the same situation, but with two losses, yet under Ed Orgeron have had some success. The Tigers are a -6 point home favorite.
It’s been an up-and-down season for both of these teams, which is why everyone is still undecided on them. That said, the line seems a bit large going against Chad Kelly, who has kept the Rebels in every Game this season, notably a five-point loss against Alabama. Even if LSU is winning in the Fourth quarter, there’s always the chance at a late cover for Ole Miss.
The Tigers have won their last two Games by large margins, but beating up on Missouri and Southern Miss doesn’t mean a whole lot. This is still the same team that wants to run a ton and if it wasn’t for a couple huge passing plays against Southern Miss, that Game was even in the first half.
As for the Rebs, their defense has failed them against good teams and that was the case last weekend against Arkansas. They were favored on the road, but couldn’t stop the Hogs from scoring rather easily on almost every possession.
When these teams met a year ago, Chad Kelly dominated in a 38-17 win, throwing for 280 yards and a couple touchdowns as well as 81 yards on the ground and a couple more touchdowns. After Ole Miss stopped LSU on some early drives, that was all they needed to get an early lead and force the Tigers to pass more than they wanted.
It wouldn’t be all that surprising if Ole Miss did that again, as Kelly has been a much better first-half quarterback than second half for most of the year. He’s picked up where he left off last season, but he has been less efficient with weaker receivers. LSU’s defense still hasn’t allowed more than 20 points yet, but they haven’t exactly faced a good offense. Ole Miss will undoubtedly be their toughest challenge to date.
The problem for the Rebels is on the defensive side and it looks like Leonard Fournette will return after missing the last few Games. Fournette was actually bottled up in this meeting last season, but it’s hard to see that happening again. Expect the Tigers to use a heavy dosage of Fournette and Derrius Guice, with a couple deep shots taken by quarterback Danny Etling sprinkled in. Ole Miss has been susceptible to giving up long plays and that’s exactly what this LSU offense has done in recent weeks.
The Tigers are six-point favorites, but that’s giving a lot of respect to Orgeron after a couple freebie wins. As for the Rebels, they may be the best three-loss team in the country and it wouldn’t be surprising if they kept this one close behind Kelly, similar to last week’s result at Arkansas.
Our Pick – LSU -7.5