College Football Pick
By Jason Green
To say Penn State’s last Game was a big one is a major understatement. They took down 2nd ranked Ohio State 24-21 knocking them from the ranks of the unbeaten. In the process the Nittany Lions entered the top 25. They have won 3 in a row and are a big 11.5-point betting favorite on the road facing Purdue.
Purdue has lost 3 of their last 4 Games, all in Big 10 play, including 2 in a row. They have a solid passing attack, ranking 16th in the nation in passing yards per Game, but not much else. The Boilermakers only rank tied for 89th in ppg, 102nd in opponents ppg, and 116th in rushing yards per Game.
Penn State is not only 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 Games facing Purdue, but they have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 Games facing them on the road.
Penn State knocked off Ohio State at home in their last Game and easily covered as a big 17.5-point underdog. While Purdue lost to Nebraska 27-14 on the road in their last Game they did cover as a 24-point underdog.
With their win over Ohio State the Nittany Lions are ranked for the first time in 5 seasons. They beat Ohio State even though they only had 276 total yards of offense, gave up over 400 yards for the 3rd time this season, and QB Trace McSorley only connected on 8 of his 23 passes. They scored 17 points in the 4th quarter for the big comeback with the key play being a blocked FG returned for a TD. While McSorley did not have a great passing Game he was the 2nd leading rusher with 63 yards and Saquon Barkley rushed for 99 yards.
The run Game will be key for Penn State, as while Purdue has a pretty good pass defense they only rank 121st in the nation in run defense.
Purdue is led by QB David Blough and while he has put up big numbers in the last couple of Games he has not got much help. Lead rusher for the season Markell Jones only rushed for 36 yards on 10 carries in the loss to Nebraska and he has been struggling as of late.
Penn State is a much stronger defensive team against the pass, which sets up well for them in this Game. They only rank 95th in the nation in run defense, but can Jones and company take advantage of that?
PSU is 3-14-2 ATS in their last 19 road Games, 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and in their last 6 road Games the posted total has gone Over 5 times.
Purdue is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home Games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games following a ATS win, and in their last 8 home Games the posted total has gone Over 7 times.
Bettorsworld Pick – Interesting to note that the public is all over Purdue. Perhaps expecting a letdown after last weeks result? Could happen, however we’re going to go against the public here AND WITH Our model which likes Penn State to cover the -12. Penn State -12 For more information about Our model click here