Pitt – Miami ATS Pick

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Pittsburgh Panthers

vs.

Miami Hurricanes

By Jason Green

11/5/16

The Hurricanes blew threw the early season winning 4 straight and being ranked in the top 25. However, they have lost Four in a row and could use a win in their Game to get closer to a bowl. They are only 1-3 in ACC play and their defense has struggled as of late giving up at least 30 points in each of their last 2 Games.

Pitt had their three Game winning streak snapped in their last Game losing to a ranked Virginia Tech team in a close one. The Panthers don’t have much of a passing attack and their D only ranks 99th in the nation giving up an average of 32.4 ppg, but they have a solid run Game that ranks 25th in the nation averaging 231.8 rushing yards per Game.

The road team has covered the spread every time in the last 6 Games between these ACC teams.

Pitt fell to Virginia Tech in their last Game 39-36 in a barnburner, but they did cover at home as a 3.5-point underdog.

Miami lost their 4th in a row in their last Game losing to Notre Dame 30-27 on the road where they did not cover as a 2-point underdog.

Pitt had a balanced attack in the loss to Virginia Tech and overall had 458 yards, but their D let them down with the Hokies racking up 556 yards. QB Nathan Peterman passed for 267 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT and he had not been picked off in his previous 4 Games. RB James Conner is the player that the Canes may have to worry about the most and he had a big Game against he Hokies with 141 yards and 3 TD.

In their loss to Notre Dame Miami was one-dimensional on offense with 288 passing yards while they only had 24 rushing yards. QB Brad Kaya was a Heisman candidate in the early part of the season, but no more. He has not been playing bad with 5 TD and 3 INT in the skid, but he has taken lots of sacks and in the streak he has lost a total of 121 rushing yards.

After a hot start against some weaker teams lead RM Mark Walton has not helped the offense much as of late and has failed to rush for over 82 yards or average more than 4 yards per carry in his last 5 Games. Joseph Yearby has nearly 500 rushing yards this season and after playing well for a couple Games getting more reps in the backfield he only had 6 carries for a total of 1 yards in the loss to Virginia Tech.

Kaya may have a big Game, as the Pitt passing defense only ranks 125th in the nation, but their run defense is one of the best in the nation ranking 6th.

Pitt is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road Games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Games overall, and in their last 7 Games the posted total has gone Over every time.

Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games following a ATS loss, and in their last 7 Games facing a team with a winning record the posted total has gone Under 5 times.

Our Pick – Pitt +3.5