San Diego State
The biggest surprise of the Mountain West championship is that Boise State didn’t make it. The Broncos fell in their final Game of the season and lost the top spot. But that won’t stop this Game from being exciting. Both Wyoming and San Diego State have been in their fair share of close contests this season. The Aztecs are a -7 point road favorite.
It’s interesting that SDSU is giving seven points in this Game, mainly because Wyoming won in this same situation 34-33 only a couple weeks ago. And it wasn’t that the win was lucky. The Cowboys outgained SDSU through the air and on the ground. To boot, two of SDSU’s touchdowns were on kickoff returns and it’s hard to see that happening again.
The main thing here is that Wyoming is a completely different team at home. That’s seen in all Four of their losses coming on the road, most recently the 21-point loss at New Mexico. But at home, the Cowboys have already beat Air Force, Boise State and San Diego State.
As for the Aztecs, they’re also coming off a couple losses, most unforgivably a 63-31 home loss to Colorado State. They do have three road wins, but none of those came against a team with a winning record and of course they lost to Wyoming.
For San Diego State to cover, it’s going to take a much better effort than the previous meeting. That starts with running back Donnel Pumphrey, who could finish his career as the FBS leader in rushing yards. The problem is that he’s been stopped for just 129 yards in the last two Games. If he has a similar effort, there may be no chance of the Aztecs covering. This is an offense that lives by its running Game as quarterback Christian Chapman has 19 touchdowns on the season.
Wyoming was completely gashed by New Mexico last weekend for 568 rushing yards, but that’s a different type of offense. And since the Cowboys already had some success against Pumphrey, they could easily do so again.
On the other end, Wyoming is similar in that it wants to run the ball a ton. Brian Hill has at least 23 carries in the last seven Games and ran for 131 yards and a couple touchdowns in the first meeting between these teams. The difference for the Cowboys is that quarterback Josh Allen does a little more. He has 23 passing touchdowns, but is also fairly mobile as seen in his 487 rushing yards and seven rushing TDs.
Neither one of these defenses is coming off a good Game, but with Wyoming at home and having already beaten San Diego State a couple weeks ago, this spread looks a bit too high.
The Aztecs are 5-1 ATS (loss was last week) in their last six following an ATS loss, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road Games, but 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Cowboys have covered in their last Four home Games and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall. The over has hit in five of the last six meetings between these schools.
The Aztecs were favored by double digits in their last two Games and lost both. This time they’re touchdown favorites on the road. Playing in the West, all six of SDSU’s Conference wins have been against teams with losing records.
Our Pick – Wyoming +7