TCU – Baylor NCAAF Game Preview and Pick to Cover the Spread

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Big 12

College Football Pick


Only a couple years ago these teams were the cream of the crop in the Big 12, but that’s been far from the case this season. Baylor was undefeated, but didn’t beat anyone of relevance and lost its first Game last week. But back at home, they were -9 point favorites over TCU as seen at 5Dimes Sportsbook early in the week.

While Baylor may not be as good as its record, TCU can be considered as good as its record because the Horned Frogs are 4-4. They are coming in having lost two straight, most recently at home against Texas Tech. In their only two Conference road Games, they barely managed Kansas and were destroyed at West Virginia. The line is close to double digits because this team just isn’t good this year.

On the other side of that, Baylor has only had two difficult Games this year, beating Oklahoma State at home and losing at Texas last weekend. It’s still out on how good the Bears actually are, but their offense is still fairly elite.

Surprisingly, last week’s loss was the first of quarterback Seth Russell’s career as a starter. Unfortunately for him, he picked up a concussion against the Longhorns and is questionable to play, although is expected to be fine. If he can’t go, that would obviously change the outlook of this Game.

Maybe of more concern has been Russell’s performance in the last three Games, completing roughly 50% of his passes for five touchdowns and one interception. Yes, he’s found room on the ground, but when you can’t throw the ball against the last three defenses he’s faced, it’s a bit worrisome. And coming off a concussion, you don’t want him running the ball 21 times like he did last Game.

Another issue is that Baylor’s top two running backs, Terence Williams and Shock Linwood, are both battling injuries and are also questionable. While they still have a couple guys in waiting, this could be of concern. That said, the Bears are still averaging 5.7 yards per carry as a team.

On the other end, Baylor is still a bit of a question, but they’ve been noticeably better at home. That could be enough against a TCU offense that has hit a wall in recent Games.

since scoring 46 points in a loss to Oklahoma, the Horned Frogs haven’t been able to get anything going and a lot of that is on quarterback Kenny Hill. Similar to Russell, he’s struggled mightily in recent Games, but Hill has been even worse with two touchdowns and five interceptions in the last three. If Hill continues that kind of play, it’s hard to see TCU pulling out a win on the road, or even covering.

And just like Baylor, TCU’s top running back Kyle Hicks is battling an injury, so that’s another minus for this offense. Before betting this Game, make sure to check the injury report, but the status of Russell is the most important.

The Horned Frogs are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record but have failed to cover in their last five Big 12 Games. The Bears are 29-11 ATS in their last 40 home Games, but 4-10 ATS in their last 14 overall.

Our Pick – 4 of the last 5 in this series decided by a TD or less with 3 of those decided by a field goal or less. Anything over a TD worth a look here. TCU +7.5

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