College Football Pick
No one seems to be talking about them but Oklahoma State still has a shot of winning the Big 12 this year. The Cowboys just need to win out. The only problem is that their two remaining Games are on the road, this one at TCU. The Horned Frogs were early -4.5 point home favorites.
After a rough month of football, TCU was an afterthought in the conference, but coming off a week of rest and a huge 40-point win at Baylor, that has changed. The Frogs are surprising favorites in this Game despite losing their last two home Games, one of them against Texas Tech. In that poor stretch, the Frogs also barely won at Kansas 24-23. With one more win, they’ll be locked into a bowl Game.
It’s almost funny how little respect Oklahoma State continues to have even after winning its last six Games. Sure, the Cowboys aren’t winning pretty Games, barely taking down Kansas State and Tech the last two weeks, but they’re still winning and one of those includedbeating West Virginia. The worry is still there, though, as this is the same team that lost at Baylor earlier in the season.
The spread is even more surprising considering what happened last year. The Cowboys dominated the entire way in a 49-29 win. They didn’t have to run the ball as Mason Rudolph tossed for 352 yards and five touchdowns, while TCU’s Trevone Boykin was picked off Four times.
The main goal for the OK State defense this time around will be stopping the TCU ground Game. Kyle Hicks is coming off a huge Game in which he ran for 192 yards and five TDs, but when he struggles, so does TCU. Quarterback Kenny Hill is not the same passer as Boykin and it’s seen in the numbers as he has just 14 TDs and 10 INTs all season. In the last Four Games, he has just three passing TDs to five INTs.
OK State doesn’t have the greatest defense, but they’re arguably above average in the conference, already holding down WVU and Texas. Then again, the same can be said for the Horned Frogs as they just held Baylor to 22 points and Tech to 27 the week before.
On their winning streak, quarterback Mason Rudolph has probably been the biggest difference maker. For the season he has 24 TDs compared to just Four interceptions and he hasn’t thrown a pick in five of the last six Games. In addition, he’s completing more than 71% of his passes in the last three Games. To help, running back Justice Hill has seen an uptick in carries this year and he’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry, much better than what they had last year.
If the Cowboys know the line, they’d probably feel disrespected. Does TCU deserve to be this big of favorite with its only relevant win coming against a Baylor team that’s falling apart?
The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and the Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six home Games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Frogs are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 Games following a bye week. That said, the Frogs have also failed to cover in their last five home Games. The home team has covered in the last Four meetings between these schools.
Our Pick – Oklahoma State +4.5