By Jason Green
Both of these teams are coming off big wins and each needs to keep winning to make it to a bowl. Texas may have saved their season, and head coach Charlie Strong’s job, with a 35-34 win over undefeated and top 10 Baylor. The Longhorns have a solid and balanced offense, which ranks in the top 40 in the nation in passing and rushing yards per Game, but their only rank 105th giving up an average of 32.8 ppg.
Texas Tech is coming off a win over TCU and to say they are all about offense would be an understatement. They have the nation’s top ranked passing offense and rank 2nd averaging 47.4 ppg. However, out of 128 FBS teams they only rank 123rd giving up an average of 41.4 ppg.
Texas has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 Games facing Texas Tech.
Texas moved to 4-4 on the season in their last Game upsetting Baylor 35-34 where they covered as a 4-point home underdog.
Texas Tech also moved to 4-4 in their last Game beating TCU 27-24 in OT covering the spread getting 9.5 points on the road.
Texas Tech was outgained in their loss to TCU and they did not have a big passing Game, but they forced 2 turnovers and held the Horned Frogs to 5/15 on 3rd down conversions.
Tech QB Patrick Mahomes II had his lowest output of the season in the last Game after passing for over 730 yards in the previous Game. While he has a deep WR corps, very deep, Jonathan Giles leads the team with 927 receiving yards, which is nearly more than the 2nd leading WR on the team. The Red Raiders also had a legit ground Game for a change in the TCU Game with Da’Leon Ward rushing for 98 yards.
Tech will be facing a Texas D that ranks 95th against the pass and 104th against the run.
The Longhorns have finally found a legit QB in freshman Shane Buechele, who passed for 291 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT in the win over Baylor. The big star in the Game was RB D’Onta Foreman, who rushed for 250 yards averaging a stellar 7.2 yards per carry.
Texas Tech may have played their best Game on D in their last Game, at least playing a good team, but they still do not rank in the top 103 in the nation in run or pass defense. Oh yeah, their pass D, ranks 124th in the nation.
Texas is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road Games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games following a straight up win, and in their last 8 Games after an ATS win the posted total has gone Under 6 times.
Tech is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Conference Games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games overall, and in their last 15 home Games the posted total has gone Over 12 times.
Jason’s Pick: While both teams are coming off big wins the Red Raiders are the pick in this one. Texas is 0-3 on the road this season while Tech is 3-2 at home. Texas Tech will win this Game in their house and cover the spread only giving 3.5-points.