Vanderbilt
vs.
Auburn
College Football Pick
11/5/16
The jury is out. This Auburn team is actually pretty good, having won its last five Games. With a favorable Schedule the rest of the way, they could be set for a showdown at Alabama in the final week of the regular season. But Vanderbilt can’t be taken for granted, even with its 1-3 SEC record. That said, the bookmakers don’t seem to care and have the Tigers as -25.5 point favorites.
After slogging through the early season and beating LSU in the final seconds, this Auburn offense has suddenly climbed into elite territory. The Tigers are carving up opponents with ease, piling on 106 points in the last two Games against solid competition (Arkansas, Ole Miss). And at this point, their losses aren’t all that alarming anymore (Clemson, Texas A&M).
Vanderbilt isn’t considered good by any means and its offense is the opposite of elite, but one thing they have going is that they compete. The Commodores kept things close with Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina, and even left Georgia with a win. Of course, it’s not because of the offense that is scoring just over 20 points per Game.
If Auburn can Scoreon Vandy, there will be no hope of covering because the ‘Dores may have trouble reaching double digits in this Game. Auburn’s defense has been stout this season, allowing 16 points per Game, and their worst outing came last week when they allowed 29 to Ole Miss.
Vandy quarterback Kyle Shurmur has just Four TDs to three INTs and that’s about all that needs to be said. Running back Ralph Webb has been good at times, but even if he reaches 100 yards, that’s not going to be enough to put points on the board. He ran for 110 against Florida a month ago and the ‘Dores still only had six points.
On the other side, the question is if this Vandy defense can do anything against Auburn’s rushing attack. Kamryn Pettway has been on lately with 597 yards and six touchdowns in the last three Games. Kerryon Johnson is a little beat up, but he’s still another vital piece in this running Game.
On the positive end, Vandy held Georgia and Nick Chubb to 75 yards on 35 carries a couple weeks ago. On the other end of that, they gave up 289 rushing yards to the Georgia Tech triple-option.
Most cases show Vandy being able to stop this offense, but in Auburn, that may be a bit more difficult. Auburn QB Sean White probably won’t be asked to do much as he hasn’t attempted more than 22 passes in the last Four Games. The Tigers will stick to the ground Game here and if it works, Vandy will be in trouble.
The Commodores are 1-5 ATS in their last six following a straight-up win, but 19-7 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS loss. The Tigers have covered in five straight and are 5-1 ATS in their last six home Games. Every trend points to the under with it going 9-2-1 in Vandy’s last 12 road Games and 10-4-1 in Auburn’s last 15 home Games.
Our Pick – Vandy +25.5