Auburn
vs.
Texas A&M
College Football
Free Pick
11/4/17
Auburn still has a gauntlet of a Schedule left, which makes this a must-win heading into the final stretch of the season. Things should go in their favor, but it was only a year ago that Texas A&M won this Game 29-16. Then again, that was a long time ago. The Tigers were large -15 point road favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
The spread reached this level mainly because of last weekend’s performance by the Aggies, losing 35-14 at home to Mississippi State. It was a bad all-around performance from a team that looked solid up until then in SEC play. A&M gave Alabama all everything it had and then won at Florida the following week. This is still a team that can compete, no matter what the Mississippi State Game showed, so the Aggies should see plenty of money.
Auburn is on its third-straight road Game, which is never a favorable thing. They destroyed Mississippi State earlier, but losing at LSU showed some flaws a couple weeks ago. Auburn should be the second-best team in SEC West, but that LSU loss stands out. It also doesn’t help that Auburn has to play Georgia and Alabama in its final two Conference Games.
Given the inconsistencies of both of these teams, this won’t be the easiest Game to bet. A&M has gotten nothing from freshman quarterback Kellen Mond in recent Games and that could be a problem again. since looking competent against Alabama, he’s a combined 16-for-50 with three interceptions in the last two Games. If that continues, this Game will depend on the running Game between Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford, as well as Mond. Neither of those guys has done much in recent Games, hence the ineffective offense. Auburn allows just 124 rushing yards per Game, which is at the same level as Miss. State, so this will be another good test.
If the Aggies have trouble moving the ball and fail to reach 20 points again, it will depend on Auburn’s offense to cover. A&M has been all over the place defensively and will be hard to pin down against an Auburn offense that has scored at least 44 points in Four of the last five Games.
The Tigers are using the combo of Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway to control Games and that’s been enough outside of that LSU loss. The two running backs have combined for 20 touchdowns and that’s all the team has needed, even if quarterback Jarrett Stidham isn’t doing much. Stidham has managed the Game with eight touchdowns and only three picks and that will be the same strategy in this one. The Aggies gave up 35 and 43 points to Miss. State and Arkansas, but also just 17 to South Carolina and Florida. Even allowing 27 points to Alabama is a positive, so there’s no telling how this group will look.
The Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six SEC Games, while the Aggies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six overall, but a miserable 3-13 ATS in their last 16 November Games and 2-15 ATS in their last 17 following a straight-up loss. The underdog has covered in the last Four meetings and the road team has covered in the last five.
Our Pick – Texas A&M +15