Colorado
vs.
Washington State
College Football
Free Pick
10/21/17
The Pac-12 took a turn for the worst last weekend and now appears in jeopardy of getting a team into the College Football Playoff. Washington State’s chances were long in the first place, but a beat down against Cal didn’t help matters. The Cougars opened as just -10.5 point home favorites against a struggling Colorado team (as seen at 5Dimes Sportsbook).
This spread is a good indicator of what people think of the Pac-12. The Buffaloes aren’t the same team as a year ago and come in at just 1-3 in Conference play with that lone win coming last Game at Oregon State. On the road again, it’s surprising the Buffs weren’t bigger underdogs against a team at 6-1 overall. But after getting dropped 37-3 at Cal last Friday, there’s reason to doubt the Cougars here, even at home.
Expecting Washington State to play the same way following a loss would be a mistake, though. At least, that’s what one would think. This same team beat USC a few weeks ago and then handled Oregon just before the Cal outing. In similar matchups, Wazzu easily beat Oregon State a month ago 52-23, while Colorado won 36-33 last week. Colorado won this matchup 38-24 last season, but things have changed a lot since then, at least for Colorado.
With a new defensive coordinator, the Buffs don’t have nearly the same level of defense, and sit at the bottom of the rankings in yards allowed. They’re giving up more than 420 yards per Game and that’s not something that will work against LUke Falk and company. Falk is coming off a terrible outing, but this is still an experienced quarterback that’s completing more than 70 percent of his passes for the season. Expect Falk to get back in business with help from Jamal Morrow and James Williams in the running Game, as well. Colorado gave up 45 points to Arizona and 33 to Oregon State in the last two Games so Wazzu shouldn’t have any trouble scoring.
There’s a chance this Game turns out similar to when Colorado lost to Washington 37-10 roughly a month ago. The difference is that UW’s defense is a bit better, but that’s not to say the Cougars have a bad defense. WSU’s defense has been solid and one of the reasons they’re 6-1 overall.
Colorado’s offense has scored a decent amount of points the last three Games, but doing so against three of the worst defenses in the Pac-12 (UCLA, Arizona and Oregon State) doesn’t say much. Quarterback Steven Montez has a solid 12 touchdowns and six picks this season, but most of those TDs were accrued against bad defenses. In fact, Four of them came against lowly Northern Colorado. Montez has decent numbers running the ball, but with just eight rushing yards in the last two Games, that may not be a factor here. The best route for Colorado to move the ball will be with running back Phillip Lindsay, who already has 995 yards and 10 touchdowns this season.
Cal won through a balanced offense and great defense, but that’s not something Colorado has shown this season. If Montez doesn’t help Lindsay at all, it’ll be tough for the Buffs to cover on the road. The Buffaloes are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Conference Games, while the Cougars still have good overall trends and are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
Our Pick – Colorado +10