FSU – Florida CFB Pick ATS

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Florida State



College Football

Free Pick


This may be the least exciting Game between these teams in recent memory. Both teams sit with 4-6 records and have shots of reaching a bowl with wins, although that still wouldn’t be guaranteed. Florida State plays Louisiana Monroe next week, while Florida may seek a waiver from the NCAA as it never reScheduled its cancelled Game against Northern Colorado. For this one, the Seminoles were -5 point road favorites as of Tuesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

This spread is slightly interesting with Florida State a road favorite, but Florida has been brutal against anyone relevant in the last month-plus. Former defensive coordinator Randy Shannon is serving as the interim head coach and his first win was a big cover against UAB. He’ll try and ride that momentum into this one, if that’s possible.

Nothing stands out for either one of these teams. Florida State has slightly better numbers on the defensive side and that could be what separates them. Prior to the UAB win, the Gators were in free fall and giving up tons of points to Mizzou and South Carolina. On the offensive side, it can be argued that FSU also has that edge, but that’s almost a toss up.

Florida is at home, but a lot of fans are already done with this season and that’s because quarterback play has remained dismal. Freshman Feleipe Franks has shown little hope in that aspect completing just 56.3% of his passes for seven touchdowns and five interceptions. Even in the win against UAB, he completed only 50 percent of his passes. The Gators will focus on the ground Game with LAmical Perine and that will be a trying process against this FSU defense that allows 3.9 yards per carry. If Perine can’t go for more than Four yards per rush, it’s going to be another long day for this offense.

It’s been a similar situation for the Seminoles since James Blackman had to take over at quarterback. His numbers align with those of Franks, completing 57.5% of his passes for 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Of course, he had his best Game of the season last week with three touchdowns against Delaware State. The ‘Noles will also lean on the ground Game, as well, but could have more success against a defense giving up 4.4 yards per carry. Cam Akers has had a few nice Games this season and could be in for another one with Jacques Patrick possibly joining in.

Neither one of these teams is good, but Florida State appears slightly better in almost every phase of the Game. That should be enough even on the road, unless the Gator faithful come out big for this Game. FSU dominated last year’s matchup 31-13 and while the defense could have a similar effort, trusting in Blackman and the offense will be tough.

The Seminoles are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 Games overall, but have covered in their last Four against a team with a losing record. The Gators are 9-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, but 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-Conference Games (one of those covers was last week). In this meeting, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six and the favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 with the under hitting in 17 of the last 22.

Our Pick – Florida +6

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