Georgia
vs.
Florida
College Football
Free Pick
10/28/17
With Alabama and Auburn off this week, the Georgia-Florida Game may be the biggest SEC matchup of the weekend even though the Gators have looked unremarkable so far. While this is usually a good matchup, the Bulldogs were -14 point favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
The spread says everything about this Game and where these teams are. Florida has had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning the last three by double-digits, but these teams are far removed from those days. In last year’s Game, Florida controlled both sides of the ball as Nick Chubb couldn’t get anything going for the Bulldogs as they ran for just 21 yards and lost 24-10.
There’s no reason to expect the same in this one as Georgia is running through every opponent with ease. Florida has been the opposite, losing its last two home Games by a total of three points against LSU and Texas A&M. Two of its three wins should have been losses in close Games against Tennessee and Kentucky. The Gators have solid defensive numbers, but they haven’t completely shut down any offense and are allowing 23.3 points per Game.
Georgia has scored at least 41 points in its last three Games and should be set for at least 30 in this one behind a dominant running Game between Nick Chubb (688 yard, 8 TDs) and Sony Michel (492 yards, 6 TDs). Jake Fromm has been competent at quarterback, but he hasn’t really been needed in any SEC matchup. Unless Florida brings another level to this Game, Chubb and Michel should have their way against this rush defense that’s allowing 144 yards per Game.
It could be just as troubling on the other side of the field as Florida still hasn’t figured out its offensive woes. The Gators have scored just 33 points in their last two Games mainly because Feleipe Franks is not the answer at quarterback, but he’s the only way they can go. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown in his last three Games if that says anything (56 pass attempts). Malik Davis and the ground Game has been the one good thing about this offense and that may not work in this matchup. Davis has rushed for at least 90 yards in the last five Games so that’s huge.
Georgia’s defense has some of the best stats in the country from allowing 12.6 points per Game to giving up only 82 rushing yards per contest. After failing to completely show up last Game against Missouri, the Bulldogs should be focused and ready to go against a team that’s beaten them three times in a row. This line is big, but maybe not big enough if Georgia plays the way it has been. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six Conference Games, while the Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a bye week, their only positive trend.
Our Pick – Georgia -13.5