Georgia
vs.
Auburn
SEC
Championship Pick
12/2/17
We didn’t expect to see a rematch between these teams so soon after they met only a few weeks ago. But here we are with Georgia thinking revenge after getting embarrassed 40-17 in that previous Game in Auburn. That may be built into the spread with Auburn a -2.5 point favorite as of Monday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
since that loss, Georgia has gotten back to dominating opponents, beating Kentucky and Georgia Tech by a combined 80-20 Scoreline. But neither of those wins were as impressive as Auburn’s 26-14 result against Alabama. With victories against ‘Bama and Georgia, the Tigers may have the two most impressive wins in the country. Of course, both of those came at home and this team hasn’t looked as good on the road with the loss to LSU standing out. Not to say Georgia has been good on the road, but it’s played more consistent than Auburn. Playing in Atlanta could give a small edge to Georgia, but Auburn is only 2.5 hOurs away so it’s not like its fans won’t travel.
For this Game not to go the same way it did back on Nov. 11, the Bulldogs need to do a much better job on the line. Auburn ran for 237 yards on 5.2 yards per carry against a defense that was dominating running Games before that. Georgia is still only allowing 112.5 rushing yards per Game on 3.5 yards per Game and that needs to show up in this Game. Otherwise, Kerryon Johnson will have his way and that will set up Jarrett Stidham in the passing Game. That’s been huge for Stidham, who’s been extremely efficient this season and has completed at least 69.6 percent of his passes in each of the last Four Games. That’s helped put Auburn’s offense over the top compared to previous seasons. Johnson left last week’s Game with an injury, but most reports have it as minor and he should be good to go. If not, Kam Martin has been plenty capable as a backup when needed.
If Auburn finds success offensively, it will come down to what Georgia can do. If the Bulldogs don’t move the ball again, the Game will be all but over. The dynamic duo between Nick Chubb and Sony Michel did nothing in that first Game, which led to 46 rushing yards as a team on 1.4 yards per carry. No matter what Auburn does on the offensive side, if that happens again for Georgia, this one could get away from the Bulldogs again. But holding Chubb and Michel to those totals again won’t be easy. There’s a reason Chubb has 1,098 yards and 13 touchdowns and Michel is at 903 and 13. But if the running lanes aren’t there, Jake Fromm hasn’t shown enough that he can carry the offense when needed and that was the other reason the first matchup got out of hand. Fromm hasn’t done a whole lot this season even if he has 19 touchdowns. If Georgia’s running Game doesn’t work, the offense falls apart.
The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site Games and the Tigers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these schools with the under hitting in five of the last seven.
Our Pick – Georgia +2.5