Georgia – Vandy Free Pick with Analysis

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College Football

Free Pick


It only took a couple weeks for Georgia to become the biggest contender for Alabama in the SEC this season. The Bulldogs carved through their last two opponents and there doesn’t look to be a team that can challenge them in the East. Florida may also be undefeated in Conference play, but as of now, no one considers them a contender. The Gators just took down Vandy 38-24 last week and now the Commodores get Georgia, which jumped to a -17.5 road favorite as of Monday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Vandy was thought to have a decent defense, but that wasn’t the case last week as Florida’s previously inept offense ran for 218 yards and five touchdowns. With how Georgia has looked, it’s likely the spread will keep rising as Vandy has completely flopped since upsetting Kansas State a couple weeks ago.

The Bulldogs had an impressive upset at Notre Dame a month ago and have turned that into two dominant SEC wins against Mississippi State and Tennessee. Their defense looks legit and freshman quarterback Jake Fromm has done everything that’s been asked of him, which isn’t a ton. But just like Florida last week, Georgia will go to the ground against this Vandy defense and that should work just fine. The trio of Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and D’Andre Swift should lead to another dominant performance after going for 294 rushing yards against the Vols. With how Vandy’s defense has played in recent Games, the Bulldogs should reach at least 30 points in this one no matter how Fromm looks under center.

Covering this Game for the home team will require Kyle Shurmur to do more than he did in last year’s upset win. The Commodores improbably won this meeting last season as they were outgained 171 to 421 in total yardage. There’s a good chance the yardage totals will be the same on Saturday, but with the Scorea lot different than Vandy’s 17-16 win.

The ‘Dores have not been able to run on anyone and that’ll be a major problem against everyone in the SEC. Ralph Webb has struggled to 2.6 yards per carry and this matchup isn’t going to help that. Without a running Game, Shurmur will need to repeat some of what he did last Game against Florida as he tossed for three touchdowns and 264 yards. Those numbers look good by themselves, but Shurmur also only completed 18-of-40 passes. since Georgia has allowed only three points to SEC offenses that are just as good as Vandy’s, this could be another difficult result for the Commodores.

And with that, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this line keep rising unless there is some Vandy money coming in as they are playing at home. Then again, there aren’t many that will want to bet against Georgia right now. The Bulldogs have covered in their last five road Games, while the Commodores are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 following an ATS loss.

Our Pick – Vandy +17