Hyundai Sun Bowl
NC State
vs.
Arizona St
12/29/17
It was an odd season for both teams playing in the Sun Bowl. Both finished second in their respective divisions, although it’s more surprising that Arizona State can say that. NC State was considered a contender early on, but couldn’t do enough against its biggest competition. For the Game in El Paso, the Wolfpack were early -6.5 point favorites as seen at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
If this Game was played a couple weeks before the season ended, the spread would probably have been higher. NC State lost at Wake Forest in its second-to-last Game while Arizona State won its final two, albeit against Oregon State and Arizona. The Wolfpack are a good team, but didn’t have enough to take down Notre Dame and Clemson and then with little left to play for, lost at Wake.
The Sun Devils were a bit harder to figure out from beating Oregon and Washington to losing to Texas Tech and UCLA. Making things more interesting is that head coach Todd Graham was replaced by Herm Edwards, but Graham is still coaching this bowl. So at the end of the day, the biggest thing may be how much the players actually like Graham.
The biggest difference between these teams is on the defensive side where Arizona State gives up close to 450 yards and more than 30 points per Game. The Sun Devils randomly held Washington to seven points and Utah to 10 in back-to-back Games, but other than that it’s been mostly bad performances.
NC State has the ability to capitalize on that, but it’s not a given with this offense. Quarterback Ryan Finley is considered a Game manager with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions to go with 7.11 yards per attempt. He doesn’t pop off the page, but he also rarely lost Games for NC State. And most importantly he led the team to numerous 30-plus point performances against weaker defenses. The Wolfpack will still go to the ground as much as possible between Nyheim Hines (1,040 yards, 9 TDs), Reggie Gallaspy and tight end Jaylen Samuels (69 receptions, 11 rushing TDs). That’ll be possible because ASU allows 5.1 yards per carry. As long as NC State can run the ball, this offense will put points on the board.
Covering and winning this Game will depend on what the NC State defense can do. The Wolfpack had solid overall numbers, but gave up plenty of points against better offenses it faced. Arizona State turned into a run-first offense and that’s what led to some surprising wins. Demario Richard ran for more than 100 yards in each of the final Four Games to go with seven touchdowns. Kalen Ballage also hit 97 yards in two of those Games in that period. The problem is that NC State was great against the run, holding opponents to 3.9 yards per carry with one of the best defensive fronts in the ACC. If the Sun Devils can’t run the ball, Manny Wilkins (17 TDs, 5 INTs) will be asked to do more and that’s had mixed results.
ACCording to ESPN’s team efficiencies, ASU is most like Louisville, based around a good offense and bad defense. NC State won that matchup 39-25. NC State could have the better team, but motivation could be a factor for the Wolfpack, which had higher expectations after early success. Also make sure to monitor defensive end Bradley Chubb’s status (ACC DPOY), who is questionable to play in this Game.
The Wolfpack are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine bowl Games, but haven’t covered in their last Four out of conference. The Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 2-6 ATS in their last eight bowl Games. The Pac-12 has won the last Four Sun Bowls with ASU beating Duke three years ago.
Our Pick – NC State -6.5