Louisville Florida St CFB

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Florida State

College Football

Free Pick


The importance of this Game has taken a nosedive since the first week of the season. Louisville and Florida State were once considered true contenders in the ACC Atlantic division and even on a national level, but those thoughts are long gone. Playing at home, the Seminoles are still getting plenty of love as -7 point favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

A lot of people will talk about last year’s result heading into this matchup, but that has little to do with this one unless the Seminoles want to get some revenge. The Cardinals destroyed FSU last year in a 62-20 win and it wasn’t even as close as the 43-point deficit shows. LAmar Jackson did whatever he wanted with five total touchdowns (Four rushing) and Florida State’s offense couldn’t do anything Deondre Francois and Dalvin Cook.

But even with Louisville losing its last two Games entering this one, the spread feels a bit high for a Florida State team that only has two wins with both being by seven points. It’s clear the Seminoles don’t have a good offense with James Blackman under center. The freshman completed 18-of-21 passes last week, but the offense still managed only 17 points against Duke. The ‘Noles will run Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick into the ground, which has been the case for the last couple weeks. Both have rushed for a combined 200-plus yards and against a bad Louisville defense, that could work again.

But the major thing to worry about is that this offense still hasn’t surpassed 26 points all season. The Cardinals may have a bad defense, but even if FSU reaches 30 points, it’s logical to think LAmar Jackson can will his team to 30 points on his own after he demolished this defense a year ago. While Louisville already has three losses, Jackson has remained electric, already with 26 total touchdowns (16 passing). The problem is that there is zero balance in the offense as no one else stands out. Reggie Bonnafon ran for 100 yards last week, but only has 236 for the season. Jackson dominated FSU last year and should at least keep Louisville in the running for a cover if not an outright upset.

Betting on Florida State would require showing some kind of faith in its offense, which doesn’t seem like a good idea at this point. These teams are almost opposite in where their strengths are, but more often than not, offense usually wins out in college football. The dynamic Jackson will be much easier to back, especially as a touchdown underdog. The Cardinals just lost to lowly Boston College, but that still doesn’t mean FSU will win by double digits, even if it is at home.

The Cardinals are just 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 Games overall and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road Games. But, it’s important to note that a lot of those Games came as favorites over the last two years. The Seminoles don’t have many good trends and are just 0-3-2 ATS in their last five overall.  

Our Pick – UNDER 58

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