LSU
vs.
Alabama
College Football
Free Pick
11/4/17
No one wants to be in LSU’s situation this weekend as Alabama comes in with an extra week of rest. While the same can be said of LSU, it’s not the nearly the same situation for them. The Crimson Tide have dominated the Tigers in recent seasons and LSU’s chances of winning this one in Tuscaloosa are slim. The Tide opened as -21.5 point favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
The Tigers are playing well and have some impressive wins at Florida and Ole Miss, while also taking down Auburn, but this is another level. The Tide have dismantled every SEC team at home this season with their three wins by a combined 152-19 Scoreline. In recent matchups, Alabama’s defensive front has controlled things and stopped anything LSU could do even with Leonard Fournette. The Tigers will hope an offense that’s come around in recent Games can have some success, but that’s a big ask against a defense that’s allowing less than 10 points per Game.
The biggest reason for LSU’s offensive success has been the running Game between Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams. against this defense, those holes won’t be there as Fournette found out the last couple of years. Quarterback Danny Etling has been fine as a Game manager, only throwing one interception, but he hasn’t really been asked to be the main sOurce of yards for this offense. If the running Game goes nowhere, Etling will have a target on his back and that will be trouble for LSU. Etling has nine touchdowns, but hasn’t thrown for more than 227 yards in a Game.
On the other side, LSU’s defense is no longer an elite unit and that’s a good reason to back Alabama against the spread. The Tide only scored 10 points in this Game last year, but at home, things should be a little different. The Tigers are also allowing close to 150 rushing yards per Game, which isn’t a good enough rate against ‘Bama.
Jalen Hurts actually has similar numbers to Etling, but the Alabama running Game is a tad batter, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Hurts is second on the team with 572 rushing yards, while Damien Harris has been the Game breaker with 8.6 yards per carry. Expect Bo SCarbrough and Najee Harris to get work, as well, although neither has been as effective as Harris in the first half of the season.
These matchups have been relatively close in recent history even though Alabama has had the upper hand, winning the last six. since losing to Troy, LSU has been a better team, but backing on that against Alabama will be tough.
The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road Games, but 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Tide have covered their last Four following a bye week and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Conference Games. The favorite (Alabama) has covered in the last Four meetings and the under has hit in seven of the last eight.
Our Pick – LSU/Alabama UNDER 48.5