Maryland
vs.
Michigan State
College Football
Free Pick
11/18/17
It was the wrong time and place for Michigan State last week as it experienced its worst ever loss against Ohio State. The Buckeyes came in off an embarrassing loss to Iowa and embarrassed MSU en route to a 48-3 win. The Spartans are hoping to rebound against Maryland and were early -17 point home favorites as of Monday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
While Michigan State is a huge favorite, this Game can’t be overlooked, mainly because Maryland won this Game fairly easily last season 28-17. Of course, both teams have come a long way since then, namely MSU’s run defense that was ran over by the Terps for 247 yards last year. That won’t be as easy this time around and while OSU had success against MSU last week, the Spartans still allow just 111.8 rushing yards per Game.
It’s been a rough season for the Terps and that starts at quarterback where they’ve dealt with numerous injuries. Max Bortenschlager sat out last week due to a shoulder injury and was replaced by Ryan Brand, who didn’t get much done. Bortenschlager was a Game-time decision against Michigan, but should be ready for this one. No matter who is quarterback, this offense will likely struggle. against relevant teams, the Terps have struggled to score, failing to surpass 14 points against OSU, Wisconsin and Michigan. And if the running Game can’t get going between Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison, Maryland will have trouble putting points on the board again.
That said, taking Michigan State as that big of a favorite feels like a stretch given that its biggest Big Ten win this season was by just eight points. None of MSU’s Games have been considered easy, although a home Game against Maryland is the easiest matchup it’s had since beating Indiana 17-9. It’s important to note the Terps beat Indiana 42-39 only a few weeks ago.
But while MSU hasn’t blown anyone out, this may be the worst defense it’s seen. The Terps are allowing 36.2 points and 421 yards per Game. They recently gave up 31 points to Rutgers, which is not a good sign. Michigan State’s offense looked lost against OSU, but this is a much different level of competition.
The Spartans should find plenty of holes in the running Game between top running back LJ SCott (584 yards) and quarterback Brian Lewerke (370 yards). Before the OSU loss, Lewerke had thrown for 400 yards in the previous two Games and is now facing a pass defense that gives up close to 250 yards per contest. But there’s still a chance Michigan State plays down to Maryland’s level. Lewerke only threw for 400 yards because he needed to, to keep his team competitive.
The Terrapins are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road Games and 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home Games. When these teams met in East LAnsing two years ago, MSU won easily 24-7.
Our Pick – OVER 42.5