Oklahoma
vs.
Baylor
College Football
Free Pick
9/23/17
Once thought to be a competitive Game for the Big 12 opener is no longer expected to be close. Baylor has come out looking like one of the worst teams in FBS and enter Conference play without a win. There’s a decent chance the Bears could finish the season without a win, while Oklahoma is on a quest to reach the College Football Playoff. The Sooners are large -28 point road favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Even though Baylor is at home, this spread doesn’t feel large enough with the Sooners coming in with three-straight covers to open the season. The Bears haven’t been good, falling to Liberty and UTSA and then managing to put up somewhat of a fight at Duke last week. To cover this Game, something has to change for Baylor, whether that’s playing better defense or finding more consistency on offense. Given the team on the other side of the field, the best route to cover will be finding an offensive identity.
The problem is that sophomore quarterback Zach Smith has been tabbed the starter again after going 12-of-34 against the Blue Devils in his first start. While he had some big plays and finished with 263 yards and three touchdowns, that’s not a recipe for success. The Bears would do themselves a favor if they got a ground Game going, but there doesn’t appear to be a route for that to happen after averaging 2.1 yards per carry against Duke. If Baylor can’t run the ball, it’s going to be the same situation for Smith as he tosses the ball up and hopes his team comes down with it. The Bears have a depleted roster and it’s going to take a lot for them to stay competitive in their most difficult matchup of the year thus far.
As long as Oklahoma doesn’t take this Game lightly, Baker Mayfield should be set for another huge outing in his quest for the Heisman. Mayfield has picked up where he left off, already with 10 touchdowns on 76.8 completion percentage to go with zero interceptions. This Baylor defense is comparable to that of UTEP and Tulane so another 50-point effort won’t be out of the cards for this offense. Mayfield will add to his totals, while Abdul Adams, Trey Sermon and the rest of the running backs should have more success, as well. As a team, the Sooners are averaging 4.5 yards per carry and they should surpass that total after Duke ran easily on them last week en route to 246 rushing yards.
With how Baylor has looked, this spread seems a bit low. If the Sooners were a 33-point favorite against Tulane, that should be the number against Baylor. The Bears have not looked good and there aren’t many chances for them to get a win on their Schedule. Expect another easy win for the Sooners. Our Pick – OVER 62.5